AFTERNOON UPDATE: Sunday, February 24, 2013, 3:52 p.m.
After checking out the new GFS and NAM models this afternoon, there is no real reason to change my thoughts on the upcoming storm.
The only big deal is that it may be daybreak Tuesday before the snow makes it to the Quad Cities.
At this point, the worse case scenario is that the snow totals may be on the low end of the range that I gave earlier today. However, it’s still too early to commit to that. As I stated before, that’s a good starting point and I’ll leave everything the way I had it this morning.
Here is the new winter storm severe weather map. Notice from this morning that to our south in northern Missouri, the “Watch” is now a “Winter Storm Warning”.
ORIGINAL POST: Sunday, February 24, 2013, 8:42 a.m.
The snowstorm that I’ve been talking about for a few days for Monday night and Tuesday is looking more and more likely to be a big snow for the Quad Cities.
A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect late Monday night into Tuesday evening for much of the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys. While Dubuque County, Iowa, and Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties in Illinois, are not included in the watch, at this time, you will see snow, too.
Today is going to be a perfect day with plenty of sunshine with highs of 33-38°. While there will be more clouds Monday with the approaching storm, it’ll be seasonal with highs again in the 33-38° range.
As it looks right now, your Monday evening commute should be problem-free with the snow beginning after midnight into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
This is NOAA’s GFS map for 6 a.m. Tuesday.
The heaviest snow with this system will fall Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Here are the maps for noon Tuesday and 6 p.m. Tuesday. That heavier snow is indicated on these maps with the dark greens and blue.
While this storm is still about two days, there will likely be some slight shift in the storm’s path. What is certain is that we’re likely going to pick up a decent snow. What could change is the exact location of the heaviest snow.
Two days out and subject to change due to storm track and intensity, I’d say we’ll see anywhere from 3-5″ of snow around Iowa City and Dubuque, Iowa, over to Galena and Freeport, Illinois.
In the Quad Cities, Muscatine, Wapello, Fort Madison, Burlington, and Keokuk, Iowa, and Sterling, Mount Carroll, and Princeton, Illinois, 5-7″ could fall with the next system.
Right now, I’m expecting 7-9″ of snow from around Monmouth, Macomb, and Galesburg, Illinois.
These totals will mostly likely be altered and fine-tuned as we get closer to the storm. This is just to give you a ball park, starting point of how much snow to expect.
Enjoy your Sunday! I plan on making the best of my Sunday with an anniversary brunch (yes, we’re still celebrating), movies, and the Oscars, with a later afternoon weather update thrown in there for good measure.