70s, Storms, Flooding, & Flurries — Oh My!

In just the past five days, the Quad Cities hit 78° Tuesday, picked up 1-4″ of rain Monday through Thursday, and a few snow flakes fell Saturday morning.  Like the old saying goes in the Midwest, “if you don’t like the weather, wait fifteen (or five) minutes and it’ll change”.  That is so true and that’ll be the case over the next week, too.

Today will be blustery and cool with a sun and cloud mix.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive late tonight as a warm front passes.  This will bring windy and warmer conditions Sunday as highs top 70°!

As a strong cold front barrels through the area Sunday evening, there is the potential for large hail and damaging winds of over 50 miles-per-hour for a few hours late afternoon and early evening.  This is the map for Sunday night, 10 p.m.

SUNDAY 10PM

That dark blue represent the thunderstorms and the potential for heavy rain.  Once that front moves through Sunday night, it’ll stall just south of the Quad Cities keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast all the way into Thursday.

Rivers are already on the rise from the rains last week.  Here is the rainfall total at my house, in Moline, from last week.  I just love my new self-emptying, electronic rain gauge that I got for Christmas!

Rain Last Week

Look at the rainfall projections from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

Rain Projection Saturday AM through Thursday AM

I definitely think we could pick up another 1-4″ of rain this week!

Here’s a stark comparison:  So far, in 2013, we’ve picked up 10.34″ of rain and melted snow.  By this time last year, we were just at 4.30″ and we ended up having a major drought in 2012.  By the way, average is 7.3″.  So, this year, we’re three inches above average and last year we were three inches below average!

And, I’m already being asked if there will be any snow in the colder air Thursday night.  For us, in the Quad Cities, we could see some flurries or light snow.  But, the winter storm will likely stay well to our northwest!!!

This is the forecast map for Thursday evening.  That dark blue line through the Quad cities is the cold air (below freezing) aloft and the green represents the remaining moisture as the storm moves off.  So, yes, there could be some flurries or light snow briefly Thursday night or Friday, but I’m not getting excited about it happening five days out and neither should you.

THURSDAY 7PM

Have a good rest of the weekend.  And, find those waders!

Anthony

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