Possible Ice Before The Weekend Snow

I’m on vacation, but I wanted to give you a no-frills update on the two weather systems that will be affecting us through the weekend.

First up, fog will develop later tonight and on Thursday, it’ll likely become dense.

Fog

Light rain will be breaking out in the afternoon hours with highs around 40°, which will continue melting the snow we have on the ground now.  As temperatures fall Thursday night and early Friday morning, freezing rain and slick driving conditions will be a problem.

IMG_4635

A “Winter Weather Advisory” might be issued for the possible icing situation.

After that, our attention then shifts to a potential snow event later Saturday into Sunday.

Based on the latest American computer models, the storm is taking a more northerly track.  The more consistent European model has been showing this for days.  The more to the north this low tracks, the better chance that warmer air will be pulled into the storm.  That could mean more rain and freezing rain, which would limit the snow at the beginning of the event.

Saturday

For now and this is subject to change many times between now and Saturday, rain develops later Saturday afternoon from south to north across Illinois.  By late evening, this becomes a wintry mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow as temperatures start falling.

Overnight Saturday night and Sunday, this will become a moderate to heavy snow event.

Here is the GFS model map at 6 a.m. Sunday morning.

SUNDAY 6 AM GFS

The blue line behind the low shows us in the cold air and the darker green is in the heavier snow across eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and the Quad Cities.

At 9 a.m. Sunday, we’re still in the heavy snow.

Sunday 9 AM GFS

And, finally at noon Sunday, we’re still seeing moderate snow.  However, it will quickly exit our area by early afternoon.

SUNDAY NOON GFS

Remember, this is a developing situation and I ask you to keep up on the latest forecast and updates.  It will change!

What is safe to say Wednesday evening, about 72 hours before the onset of the weekend winter storm, is this could be a significant accumulating snow for the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys.  With so many variables to be determined, throwing potential snow accumulation totals out there would still be somewhat irresponsible.

I expect to have some numbers for you Thursday for potential snow.  I also think that the Quad Cities’ National Weather Service office will be issuing a “Winter Storm Watch” for the weekend storm.

There are still many pieces of the puzzle to put together before a concrete forecast is made on this weekend’s storm.

Along with my blog, CBS4 chief meteorologist Andy McCray and meteorologist Kyle Kiel, who is filling in for me Thursday and Friday on “CBS4 News This Morning” from 5-7 a.m., will have the latest on the television.  I may be partial, but I trust them the most.

And, since my buddy Greg Dutra is on vacation, give us a chance to forecast for you!

So, as they say in television, stay tuned…

Anthony

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3 responses to this post.

  1. […] « Possible Ice Before The Weekend Snow […]

    Reply

  2. Posted by Mike Martin on December 20, 2013 at 11:42 am

    I’m hoping to be snowed in (with a friend) this weekend!

    Reply

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