Things are still on track for our first accumulating snow Friday night and early Saturday.
The “Winter Storm Watch” that was issued Thursday morning to go into effect Friday evening has now been upgraded to a “Winter Storm Warning” from 6 p.m. Friday through noon Saturday in the yellow shading.
Additionally, a “Winter Weather Advisory” goes into effect at 9 p.m. Friday and runs through noon Saturday for the southern hometowns (light blue shading).
My thinking hasn’t changed much throughout today.
I still think that we’ll see a rain and snow mix develop Friday afternoon with temperatures in the 40s.
Late in the evening, the rain/snow mixture will change over to snow northwest of the Quad Cities and around midnight for the Quad Cities.
Southern hometowns will start as rain Friday afternoon and it’ll be very late Friday night before they change over to snow.
Even though the ground is still very warm and wet from the heavy rain earlier this week, the moderate to heavy snow rates after midnight Friday into Saturday morning will overcome this and the snow will start to accumulate.
I’m still look at about six to nine hours of decent snow rates and based on what I’m seeing Thursday afternoon, there’s no need to change the snow forecast map I had earlier.
However, it could very well be on the higher side of these totals.
Also, in our northern hometowns, there could be some isolated 10-12″ amounts. However, “isolated” is the word — not everyone up that way will see those high totals.
Again, as I’ve stressed in this whole forecast event, the warm ground is a problem.
The other even bigger problem will be that transition from the rain or the rain/snow mix to all snow. The faster this happens, the more snow we’ll get. The longer it takes this transition, the less snow we’ll see.
As with any snow storm, keep up on the latest forecast, especially Friday’s forecast. Local 4 meteorologist Andy McCray will update you tonight and I’ll be back Friday for “Local 4 News This Morning” from 5-7 a.m. with the very latest.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.