Winter May Return Monday

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, December 26, 2015, 9:02 a.m.

Our return to winter weather is closer now and there’s still much uncertainty as to how bad it’s going to be.

One thing I’m confident of this Saturday morning is that we’ll see some icy and snowy weather Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

The uncertainty lies in how much ice and how much snow will accumulate.

Here’s how much available moisture the computers are generating for this storm.

qpf.gif

Notice that we’re in the bulls eye of the heaviest moisture — 1.57″.  In a very elementary (and unrealistic) setting, this system could produce 16″ of snow if it was all going to fall in the form of snow using the 10:1 ratio for rain to snow.

Well, that’s not going to happen.  Based on the uncertainty of the storm’s path with the leading models, we’re going to see some freezing rain and then rain.  It’ll then change back to freezing rain before mixing with and becoming all snow.

With that being said, expect it to be very sloppy Sunday night through Tuesday.

I’m hoping by later today or early Sunday, we’ll have better model agreement and we’ll know exactly how much of that moisture will be used for ice, for snow, and just a cold rain.

As I always say with a system that’ll bring rain and snow, the more moisture that’s used when it’s raining cuts back on how much is available to fall as freezing rain and snow.

The bottom line:  have a great Saturday and check back later today and, especially, Sunday for my latest update.

The scenario and forecast will be changing before the storm moves toward us.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, December 25, 2015, 4:49 p.m.

This is one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Quad Cities with only 0.6″ of snow.

That all could be changing next week with more seasonable temperatures following a potential winter storm.

As I stated earlier today on “Local 4 News This Morning” and on Facebook,  we could be experiencing some significant winter weather Monday and Monday night.

However, this far out, the models are all over the place and are not agreeing on the path.

The two American models that I check out show different solutions.

The GFS is colder and snowier.

GFS 6pm Monday.gif

The NAM is initially warmer with mostly rain and then a transition to snow.

NAM Monday 6pm.gif

The models update every six hours, so there’s plenty of time for them to come to an agreement before Monday. And, this is not even taking into consideration the European model.

The bottom line is that we could have a big snow, an icy mix, or a heavy, cold rain event.

Keep up on the latest updates this weekend.

Anthony

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