Posts Tagged ‘cold’

Winter’s First Sticking Snow

UPDATED  POST:  Saturday Afternoon, December 3, 2016

Just wanted to give you a quick update on the snow Saturday night and Sunday.

Nothing has changed from my earlier update except parts of the area are under a “Winter Weather Advisory” later tonight and Sunday.

I still think we’ll see 1-3″ of snow mainly on grassy surfaces.   Roadways will still be slushy until later Sunday.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Earrly Saturday, December 3, 2016

Welcome to Saturday and welcome to winter!

This part sounds familiar from my blog yesterday:  “After the third warmest November on record in the Quad Cities, winter will be making its return to Iowa and Illinois to welcome December. Over the next week, we have three chances of seeing some snow accumulation.”

Here’s the updated forecast and blog!

If you follow my forecast on “Local 4 News This Morning” or my blogs for winter weather updates, you know I always tell you to keep up on the changing forecast when snow is coming.  There’s a good reason.  Small changes in the forecast can have big implications.

Here’s an update on the three weather systems that I first told you about Friday morning in my blog and on-air:

Saturday Night:  Rain and snow will develop late and change over to snow.

Sunday:  Moderate snow in the morning will change to light rain in the afternoon.

Since the ground is still relatively warm and part of the precipitation will come down as a mix or rain, accumulations will mainly be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

We could see anywhere from  1-3″ of slushy snow.  It’ll start to melt away during the afternoon.

Monday Night & Tuesday:  Wintry mix still possible.  It’s not looking too impressive this morning.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night bigger snow:  This may very well not happen!  Stay tuned.  The cold air will definitely be coming in late week!

However, since we may not get a blanket of snow Wednesday night and Thursday, lows later in the week may only drop into the teens and not the single digits.

If we get a blanket of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night, then lows in the single digits are still possible.

Stay up on the latest forecast.  This is a developing and changing weather pattern.

Anthony

December Turns Cold & Snowy

December 1st marks the beginning of “meteorological winter”, the three coldest months of the year (December, January, and February).

After coming off the third warmest November on record in the Quad Cities, colder weather is settling in and even colder weather is on the way.

december

In December, the average high temperature in the Quad Cities drops from 40° at the beginning of the month to 31° at the end of the month.  Average lows from the beginning of the month to the end of the month drop from 23° to 15°.

The warmest December temperature on record in the Quad Cities is 71° (December 4, 1998) and the coldest is -24° (December 23, 1989).

Snow 2

In a typical December, the Quad Cities picks up 9.3″ of snow.  The most we’ve ever picked up was 32″ back in December 2000 and the least was in 1889.  That December we didn’t see one flake of snow.

However, there have been other Decembers when we picked up just a trace of snow.

Happy Winter!

Anthony

“Jack Frost” Visits Tonight

A strong cold front will bring us the coldest air so far this season.

Before the front arrives, temperatures are starting out well into the 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread as Wednesday progresses.  Those showers will exit early this evening with clearing skies overnight.

With diminishing winds tonight, lows will drop to around 30° across our far northern hometowns and into the low-to-mid-30s in the Quad Cities.

frost-freeze

A “Frost Advisory” and “Freeze Warning” has been issued for much of eastern Iowa and parts of northwestern Illinois Wednesday from 2-9 a.m.   

If you have some plants you want to save, you’ll want to cover them this evening or bring them indoors.

Anthony

The Cold Blast Is A Bigger Concern

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, January 9, 2015, 3:20 p.m.

Light snow is now falling in the Quad Cities, but it’s very dry in nature and you’ll likely see it blow across the roadways and off houses.  It will accumulate on grassy surfaces.

To the south and east where it’s snowing heavier, here are some reported snow totals:  2.0″ Macomb (IL); 2.0″ Industry (McDonough County, IL); and 1.5″ Princeton (IL).

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, January 9, 2015, 5:00 a.m.

All week long, I’ve talked about the unseasonably warm weather coming to an end this weekend.  The cold Arctic air will blast across Iowa and Illinois this afternoon and Saturday night with some light snow.

Much Colder

The storm that’ll bring the snow is tracking more to the southeast and this means the Quad Cities will see nothing more than light snow that might be enough to dust the ground.

Off to the east and southeast from around Princeton to Galesburg, Illinois, the snow will accumulate a little more — around 1″ or so.

However, if you have travel plans to Chicago today, the storm is primed to bring them 4-6″ of snow — notice the darker shade of blue on this forecast map at 6 p.m. Saturday.

The bigger story for us and the Midwest is the Arctic blast — very cold temperatures and frigid wind chills.

Winds will be picking up Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as temperatures fall to an overnight low in the single digits.  When you add in the winds, it’ll feel more like -10° to -15°.

Sunday’s highs will only be in the 10° to 15° range, but wind chills will make it feel even colder.

Another little system will bring some light snow Monday night and early Tuesday.  As of now, nothing more than an inch or two.

I don’t expect to post any more weather updates on this storm today.  I just wanted to put it to bed with one last update — mainly because of the cold and winds!

Enjoy your weekend.

Anthony

More on Saturday’s Snow

UPDATED POST:  Friday, January 8, 2016, 4:23 p.m.

Snow lovers, you’re not going to be too happy.  Those not wanting much in the way of snow can start dancing around with joy.

After looking at the latest American models with the incoming storm system, it looks like we’re still going to see snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in the transition to colder air, but not much.

My colleague, Andy McCray, and I agree on lowering the snow amounts even more from this morning.

So, here’s the updated snow forecast.

New Snow Map

If anything shifts in the thinking overnight, I’ll update you Saturday morning.

Have a great weekend.

Anthony

 

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, January 8, 2016, 5:05 a.m.

Light rain, fog, and mild temperatures Friday will give way to colder air and snow Saturday.

Much colder weather arrives Saturday night into early next week with a few days with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits.

After a transition from rain early Friday night to a rain and snow mix to light snow late Friday night from the first storm system passing by, our attention will then be directed to another low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains.

It’s still trending far enough southeast of our area that we’ll only see a glancing blow from the snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Snow Saturday 1-9

In the Quad Cities, we’ll see about an inch of snow, maybe two inches.

To the east of the metro area around Princeton and Galesburg, Illinois, amounts will be closer to 2-4″.

More snow, around 5″, is possible around Chicago.

Winds will be a problem later Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday, which will cause blowing snow and visibility issues.

Also, much colder temperatures arrive by Sunday morning.  When you wake up, it’ll be around 10° and wind chills will be below zero.

Highs Sunday will only be in the low-to-mid-teens with wind chills near zero.

While we’ve definitely seen bigger snows, this is still a snow event to take seriously because there will be accumulations, wind, and much colder temperatures.

Anthony

Winter 2015-2016 Kicks Off Friday Night

UPDATES POST:  Thursday, November 19, 2015, 4:35 a.m.

Happy Snowstorm Eve!

More data is in and it’s looking very wintry Friday night and early Saturday and this will likely turn into a moderate snow event (a heavy snow event to the north of the Quad Cities).

Snow Forecast

Remember that the first flakes will not arrive until Friday afternoon or evening, so this forecast could change many times before then with the snow forecast totals shifting north or south and the numbers could go up or down.

Keep up on the latest forecast.  That’s why you have me!

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Wednesday, November 18, 2015, 4:40 p.m.

The first half of this week featured temperatures in the 60s and over two inches of rain.  After a sunny day Thursday and for part of Friday, our first measurable snow of the new winter season arrives Friday evening and Friday night.

The quick-moving snow maker will not only whiten the ground with possibly several inches of snow, but it’ll bring in the coldest air of the season.   By Sunday morning, low temperatures will be dropping into the lower-teens with a few single digits possible.

A rain/snow mix will develop Friday afternoon across eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois.  Temperatures will be around 40°-45°.

By evening, as the air cools into the 30s, the wintry mix will change over to all snow and continue into the early part of Saturday.

If you’ve been following my forecast and analysis of this system, I said the snow will have to come down hard enough Friday night to overcome the warm and wet ground.  I’m thinking that will happen and we could see the snow fall at a nice pace for about six to nine hours Friday night.  Lows in the 20s will help the snow to accumulate.

Snow Friday Night

This map shows that the highest chances of seeing snow accumulations of two inches Friday night into Saturday morning will be north of Interstate 80.  Where you see light blue and peach, chances are 70-90%.

In the Quad Cities, those chances are at 30-60%.

At this point in the game, remember that the storm that will race across the Rockies and Plains Friday and into Iowa and Illinois Friday night and early Saturday is still out in the Pacific Ocean near Alaska.

Once it comes ashore, we’ll have a very good data to help forecast this snow event.

The bottom line is that (1) we’ll pretty much see our first snow of the 2014-2015 winter season, (2) accumulations are likely in our area and heavy snow will likely fall in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, (3) the coldest air of the season arrives this weekend in the wake of the snow, and, most importantly, (4) the forecast will change some Thursday as sampled data from the storm comes in and we’ll have a solid forecast for snow amounts.

Have those shovels ready in case you need them.  At the very least, be ready to sweep off your steps, sidewalks, and driveways with a broom.

Anthony

Heavy Snow Arrives Saturday Night & Sunday

Happy Saturday!

I hope you’re stocked up on whatever you might need to wait out this weekend’s snowstorm.  If not, you still have until early Saturday afternoon.

This is going to short and sweet if you like snow.

Heavy snow is on the way Saturday evening through Sunday evening and some hometowns may have a foot of new snow on the ground by the time it ends late Sunday night or early Monday morning.

A “Winter Storm Warning” has been issued for all of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois from Saturday evening through early Sunday night for heavy snow this weekend and gusty winds, considerable blowing and drifting snow, and falling temperatures Sunday.

A rain and snow mix will begin early Saturday afternoon across our southern hometowns and it will move northward and quickly change over to snow.

Moderate to heavy snow is likely for about a 12-hour period Saturday night into early Sunday.

This is the where the GFS has the storm system at 6 a.m. Sunday.  The darker shades of green show where the moderate to heavy snow will be falling.

Now, let’s talk snow amounts.

The storm has made another shift to the north in the overnight hours, so that means that the heaviest snow will also shift northward out of central Illinois, which was the thinking Friday night.

For simplicity’s sake, 6-12″ of snow are possible with this storm from Saturday evening through late Sunday night or early Monday morning!

In the Quad Cities, I’m expecting around 10″ of snow.

Right along Interstate 80 and to the north, that’s where the heaviest snow will fall.  Amounts of 8-12″ are likely.

If you live south of I-80, you’re still going to be heavy snow.  Amounts of 6-10″ will fall there.

Remember that with any snow event, there could be isolated higher totals in any of these ranges.

LAST TIME WE SAW THIS MUCH

If we pick up more than 8.3″ of snow in the Quad Cities from this storm, it’ll be the biggest storm since that much fell back on February 26 and 27, 2013.

And, it was four years ago today (on the calendar) that a three-day snowstorm started in the Quad Cities that would bring 18.4″ of snow to the area, tying a 1979 snowstorm for the biggest snow event in Quad Cities history.

Groundhog Blizzard of 2011

In that 2011 storm, 14.8″ of that 18.4″ total fell on February 1st alone.

BOTTOM LINE…

This is a dangerous situation unfolding with heavy snow, strong winds Sunday approaching 40 miles-per-hour, and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Additionally, by Monday morning, temperatures will be near zero and wind chills will be much colder.  Monday’s highs will only be in the teens.

Since all of the pieces of the puzzle are in place, this is my only post today — unless something drastic and unforeseen happens.

Be safe and have a great weekend!

Anthony

P.S.  I’d like to thank my friends at the National Weather Service offices for the “Winter Storm Warning” base maps. 🙂