Posts Tagged ‘groundhog’

Spring Forward Into Snow!

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, March 11, 2017, 4:51 p.m.

Here’s a quick update for Sunday and Monday’s snow event.

wsw.jpg

A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect Sunday evening through Monday evening for the counties shaded in blue.  This includes the Quad Cities.  It’s basically for counties along and north of Interstate 80.

A “Winter Storm Watch” means that conditions are favorable and confidence is building for significant snow accumulation.  This is the time to prepare.

It’s usually the case that this “Watch” will become a “Winter Storm Warning”, a “Winter Weather Advisory”, or a “Snow Advisory” before the snow starts to fall tomorrow.

The latest data Saturday evening is coming in snowier, so I’ve upped the snow totals for some hometowns, especially across the north.

PM Sat Snow Totals.jpg

I’ll have another update Sunday morning.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, March 11, 2017, 5:30 a.m.

“Mother Nature” definitely makes life interesting.

After the second warmest February on record in the Quad Cities with six straight days of record highs of 69°-74° and two tornado outbreaks in Iowa and Illinois in the past two weeks, “Snow Miser” blasts back into area later Sunday into Monday.

Snow Miser

A clipper system will drop through the Midwest Sunday afternoon and Monday bringing moderate snow to the area.

It’s likely the Quad Cities will see more snow with this system than what accumulated in January and February combined!  (We only picked up 2.7″ of snow in Moline, Illinois, and 2.6″ in Davenport, Iowa, so far, in 2017!)

Parts of Iowa are already under a “Winter Storm Watch” for Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. I expect watches and advisories to cover eastern Iowa and northern Illinois before the snow event begins.

This forecast is based on Saturday morning data and I’ll continue to update this throughout the weekend, as needed.

Snow will break out across eastern Iowa later Sunday afternoon.  That snow will likely reach the Quad Cities by midnight.

This is the forecast map for 6 a.m. Monday.  Notice the tightly packed lines around the low-pressure system.  That means it’ll be windy, so we’ll have to deal with blowing snow, too.

Monday 6am

Snow becomes lighter later Monday as it spreads south and east across Illinois.

The snow event ends Monday night even though a few stray flurries are still possible Tuesday morning.

Here are the snowfall amounts I’m forecasting.  Keep in mind that these numbers could shift north or south this weekend as newer information comes in.  I’ll adjust my forecast accordingly.

Snow Forecast Sunday & Monday.jpg

So, just find your hometown and that’s how much snow you’ll have to shovel.  The kids may finally get to build a “snowperson” and go sledding after a boring winter without much snow!

The good news is that the first half of the weekend will be quiet to give you a chance to get your errands done!

I hope the stores stocked up for the run on milk, eggs, bread, and toilet paper!  (I guess “Bumble” can’t be trusted with fragile eggs!)

Snow's a comin'

Finally, while I don’t believe in the fairy tale of “Punxsutawney Phil”, the Pennsylvania groundhog that predicted six more weeks of winter, some people do (I’m looking at you, James!)

Jimmie the Groundhog Wisconsin

When the snow starts flying later Sunday, it’ll have been 5 weeks and 3 days since “Phil” saw his shadow and made his snowy forecast — just inside the “six more weeks of winter” window! 🙂

Anthony

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Incredible Stretch of February Warmth

Is this really February across the Midwest?

Global Warming Protest

Halfway through February, temperatures are running more than five degrees above average, while rain and snowfall are running below average.

After a chilly day Wednesday, but still above average, a big warm-up is on the way.  It’s a warm stretch of weather that is almost unprecedented for February.

As I stated yesterday and the data supports it even more today, we could hit the 60-degree mark or higher Friday through Monday.  That would be four straight days of 60°+ temperatures in February.

60s.png

Since record-keeping started in the Quad Cities back in the 1870s, this has only happened three times.

In February 2000, we had five consecutive days of 60°+ days.  Highs ranged from 60°-71°.

We saw four days of 60°+ temperatures in February 1976.  The highs ranged from 62°-71°.

But, the longest stretch was in February 1930 when we had seven days of 60°+ heat.  Highs in that stretch ranged from 60°-69°.

Now, tell me again, what was that groundhog’s prediction about winter?

Anthony

Yes, More Snow! But, Leave The Groundhog Alone!

AFTERNOON UPDATE:  Saturday, March 23, 2013, 2:52 p.m.

A “Winter Weather Advisory” goes into effect at midnight tonight and runs through 7 p.m. for the following counties in Iowa:  Des Moines, Henry, and Lee, and for the Illinois counties of Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, and Warren.  For Knox and Stark counties, that “Winter Weather Advisory” runs from 1 a.m Sunday until 1 a.m. Monday.

As for snow amounts, I think based on the latest information that we should shave about an inch off  the totals from the Quad Cities northward and about 2″ off the totals in the far south.  That still means about an inch north to about 1-3″ in the Quad Cities and along Interstate 80, and about 2-4″ south.  Isolated higher totals are still possible.

Have a great rest of your weekend.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, March 23, 2013, 9:23 a.m.

I’m a firm believer that people (even politicians) can change or, at least, educate themselves to see both sides of an argument.

Earlier in the week, I got on the bandwagon with many others of blaming our late season cold and upcoming snow on Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania groundhog, that made his forecast February 2nd that we’d see an early spring!

It’s gotten out of hand.  There have been calls for him to be brought up on criminal charges, he’s wanted dead or alive, and there are even pictures on Facebook that he’s been attacked and injured!

Groundhog

I apologize for blaming him for our weather misfortunes:  In the Quad Cities, this March, our temperatures have not even hit 50°once and are running 8.3° below average, and, as of this writing, this is the sixth coldest March on record in the metro area and those records go back to the late-1800s!

Now, the madness has to stop!

Rodent

Phil is right.  He was never trained to analyze weather charts, satellites, radars, and learn the physics of the atmosphere.  How dare humans take this cuddly little critter and put so much pressure on him!

As a meteorologist, I’ve blown a forecast before and I’ll do it again.  And, with that being said, there are other meteorologists that blow every storm out of proportion and every snow event becomes the “storm of the century” and every spring thunderstorm develops tornadic potential.  Do people hold those forecasters to the same ridicule as Phil?   No!

But, I’ll say that it’s pretty bad when you make only one forecast a year and you’re wrong.  That doesn’t do much for your forecasting accuracy!  It’s either 0% or 100%, so you can’t afford to be wrong.  You just have to hide out again for another year!

So, with that being said, let’s ease up a little on that Pennsylvania rodent and talk about the snow potential here in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois tonight and Sunday.

As of Saturday morning, a “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect later this evening for counties just south of the Quad Cities.  I do expect this “Watch” to become a “Winter Weather Advisory” later today and for the aerial coverage to expand northward.

Here’s the bottom line:  Nice weather is expected today with mostly sunny skies giving way to increasing clouds from south to north.  Highs will make it to 35°-40° far north, 40°-45° in the Quad Cities, and 42°-47° in the far south.

A rain and snow mix will develop later this evening across the south and progress northward.  With the relatively mild day and warm ground in the south, snow accumulations will not begin until later tonight.

Snow will fall tonight and most of Sunday before winding down Sunday night from southwest to northeast across the area.

My snow forecast totals (or “snotals”) have not changed from when I first brought them to you Friday morning on “CBS4 News This Morning” (and for those watch us, thank you).

As with any winter storm event, there could be a few isolated higher totals.

Enjoy your weekend and make the best of this snow.  For those that are ready for spring, this could be the last snow of the season.  For those that want the snow, it might not be. 🙂

For Phil’s sake, I hope it’s the last snow.  I can’t keep blogging in his defense if real spring weather doesn’t arrive soon!

Anthony