Posts Tagged ‘Heavy Rain’

Warm Weekend, But Then Snow?

UPDATED POST:  WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 4:39 p.m.

Nice sunshine this afternoon warmed our high temperature in the Quad Cities to 40°, easily surpassing the forecast high.

Warmer weather is expected through the weekend with some hometowns approaching 50° Saturday.

Then, all eyes focus on a storm coming in early next week.  Today, that storm is way out in the Pacific.

Looking at the latest afternoon NOAA GFS model, I still expect light snow to develop Monday night and then change over to rain Tuesday as the low pressure system tracks close to the Quad Cities.

A transition over to snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday will bring us accumulating snow.  How much?  It’s way too early to say and if you see a forecast with amounts, they’re just trying to get you excited.  Ignore it!

It’s still almost a week away, so there’ll be many changes to the forecast.

This is just an informational blog for planning purposes to give you a heads up.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 7:31 a.m.

While we may see a few snow flurries later today, a rather tranquil weather pattern is in place through the first half of the weekend.

We’ll also see a warming trend that will take us from the mid-30s today to near 40° tomorrow and the mid-to-upper-40s for the weekend in the Quad Cities!

By Sunday, some light rain moves in during the afternoon and that’ll change over to light snow Sunday night.  This will not be a big deal.

However, there is a big deal on the way to the Midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday.

6pm Tuesday GFS

This is the forecast weather map from NOAA at 6 p.m. Tuesday.  We see two areas of low pressure — one moving into Missouri and the other over Oklahoma.

That storm system will bring copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Depending on the path this storm takes across the Midwest, we could be seeing moderate to heavy rain and/or snow.

At this point in the game, parts of Iowa could be seeing heavy snow.

In the Quad Cities, we’ll definitely see snow, it’s just a matter of whether it starts out as rain Tuesday and changes to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Or, if the storm tracks more to our east and south, we’ll be on the cold side and could see more snow.

It’s way too early to pinpoint who gets the most and how much.  However, it’s not too early to get the word out that a big storm could be moving in early next week.

Anthony

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Rain, Rain Go Away

Rain is pretty common on Memorial Day in the Quad Cities.  Out of the past 143, it has rained at least a trace on 77 of them.  And, since its already rained since midnight, we can make that 78-out-of-144 now.

The wettest Memorial Day came in 1903 with 2.03″ of rain.

It has already been a pretty wet holiday weekend with flash flooding on area streets, rivers rising out of their banks, and basements across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys taking on water.

Here are some of the impressive rainfall totals from Saturday through Monday morning.

Rainfall Amounts

And, we’ll see several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms later today through Wednesday morning with heavy rain.

A “Flash Flood Watch” remains in effect through Tuesday morning across much of eastern Iowa and western-central Illinois.

Flash Flood Watch Memorial Day

And, if that wasn’t bad enough, there is the threat of some severe weather Tuesday and, again, later this week.  Also, more heavy rain threatens us Thursday and Friday.

Look at this rainfall forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.  While I expect another three or more inches of rain from Monday morning through Saturday morning, if this projection is correct, we could get another six inches of rain!!!!!!!!  For now, just plan on at least three more inches this week.

Rainfall Potential Through Saturday 7AM

Try to stay afloat and make the best of your week.

Anthony

Tropical Systems Can Drench The Quad Cities Like Isaac This Weekend

The remnants from Hurricane Issac that made landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in Louisiana will be bringing significant rains and possible flooding to southeastern Iowa, the Quad Cities and west-central Illinois this weekend.

The tropical nature of the air associated with this storm pushed dew points into the 70s in the Quad Cities Friday afternoon.

Rain will spread south to north Friday night into Saturday morning across the area and heavy rain is forecast Saturday and Saturday night from southeastern Iowa to the Quad Cities east into Geneseo and Princeton, Illinois.  Look at this forecast of rainfall potential.

As you can tell, from around Burlington, Iowa, to Galesburg, Geneseo, and Kewanee, Illinois, anywhere from 5-7″ of rain could fall.  There could be isolated higher totals.  In the Quad Cities, around 3″ is not out of the question.  However, notice how drastically the cut-off line is for rainfall northwest of the metro area.  Dubuque and Iowa City, Iowa, over to Galena, Illinois, may see little, if any, rain.

If this forecast verifies in the Quad Cities and we do pick up over 3″ of rain, it would be the first time in more than two years that a system brought that much rain.  On July 6-7, 2010, 3.45″ of rain fell at the airport in Moline, Illinois, the official weather observation site for the Quad Cities.

The last calendar day with more than two inches of rain in Moline was June 18, 2010.  2.23″ of rain fell that day.

When hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast and the East Coast, we hear about incredible rainfall totals of more than two feet.  Four years ago in September, we experienced the remnants of two storms.

Early in that month, the remnants of Hurricane Gustav, brought 2.44″ of rain at Quad City International Airport from September 2-4, 2008, with 2.23″ of that falling on September 4, 2008.

And, on the heels of that storm, the remnants of Hurricane Ike brought us even more rain.

From September 12-14, 2008, the Quad Cities picked up 7.08″ of rain.  Of that, 2.29″ fell on September 12th, 4.26″ on September 13th, and we picked up 0.53″ on September 14th.

When September 2008 ended, the official rainfall total for the Quad Cities was 10.91″, which was 7.75″ above average and one of the all-time wettest September months on record.

So, while the Quad Cities don’t see the hurricane-force winds with these systems, we do occasionally get the tropical moisture in the form of heavy rain and high humidity.

Have a great weekend.

Anthony