Posts Tagged ‘ice’

Dangerous Icing Tonight & Early Monday

UPDATED POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 6:09 p.m.

Right now, light freezing rain is being reported from Ottumwa to Fort Madison, Iowa, to Macomb, Illinois.

In the afternoon update, all of eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois will be under the “Winter Weather Advisory” at some point tonight into Monday.

The importance of this is that all of us will see freezing rain.  The only differences across the area will be the start and end times for the “Advisory”.  That also coincides with the timing of when the worst of the icing will be taking place.


With that being said, just go through this list of Iowa and Illinois counties until you find yours and that’ll let you know the hours when the worse icing will take place.

The “Winter Weather Advisory” is already underway for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois.  This will expire at 9 a.m. Monday.

Knox and Stark counties in Illinois will go into the “Advisory” at 6 p.m. Sunday and this will run through noon Monday.

From midnight Sunday through noon Monday, the “Advisory” covers Cedar, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Bureau, Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

The “Advisory” now starts at 3 a.m. Monday through noon Monday for Clinton and Jackson counties in Iowa and for Carroll and Whiteside counties in Illinois.

It also runs from 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday for Jo Daviess County, Illinois.


UPDATED POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 11:21 a.m.

The start time for the “Winter Weather Advisory” (blueish-purple shading) for some of us has been pushed back again.

It still goes into effect at 3 p.m. today through noon Monday for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois.

It now runs from midnight Sunday through noon Monday for Cedar, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

The “Advisory” now starts at 3 a.m. Monday through noon Monday for Clinton and Jackson counties in Iowa.


ORIGINAL POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 6:45 a.m.

The highly-anticipated ice storm I’ve been talking about for over a week now will arrive later today.

The worst of the icing and hazardous driving conditions will be Sunday night and the first half of Monday.


Winter advisories and warnings Sunday extend from the Rockies (for heavy snow) to Iowa and Illinois (for mostly ice).

This winter storm is still located over the southwestern United States and is already bringing icy weather to the Plains early Sunday morning.

As of this posting, the heaviest icing in still across southern Missouri and Kansas. This will be moving northeast today.

If you still have errands to run or if you’re heading off to church, most of Sunday morning is still expected to be dry.

The start times for the advisories remain unchanged from my Saturday evening update.


A “Winter Weather Advisory” (blueish-purple shading) goes into effect at 3 p.m. today through noon Monday for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois.

The “Advisory” runs from 6 p.m. today through noon Monday for Knox and Stark counties in Illinois.

And,  the “Advisory” starts at 9 p.m. Sunday and expires at noon Monday for Cedar, Clinton, Jackson, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

Ice Ray


While there may patchy light snow, sleet, or freezing rain moving in late morning, I think our southern hometowns from around Fairfield and Burlington, Iowa, to Monmouth and Galesburg, Illinois, will see the more general wintry mix begin around 2-5 p.m.

The more concentrated wintry mix and icing event moves northward to the Quad Cities and along and south of Interstate 80 from around 5-8 p.m. Sunday.

It should reach northern hometowns by midnight and this may be mostly light snow there, at first.

As temperatures warm south to north Sunday night, the wintry mix will become mostly a freezing rain event.

Temperatures by late morning Monday will be rising above freezing, so rain will fall and the ice will slowly melt.  However, it may take until early afternoon for this to occur.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the “advisories” are extended into Monday afternoon.


I’m still expectng around one-tenth of an inch of ice to accumulate for most of us.

The heaviest coating of ice, up to one-quarter of an inch, will be to the southwest of the Quad Cities.


One final note is that winds are not going to breezy with this storm, so even when we get a coating of ice on trees limbs and power lines, it won’t be whipping them around increasing the chances of power outages.

The bottom line is that most of Sunday morning is still expected to be dry.  You still have some time to run to the store to buy last minute groceries or supplies!

Snow's a comin'

Also, it’s always wise to have plenty of gas in your car in case you’re in an accident.  You’ll want to be able to turn the heat on, occasionally, until service crews and rescuers get to you.

I’ll monitor the start of the wintry mix and icing and update you, as needed, today.


Snow & Ice Likely Friday & Saturday

UPDATED POST:  Friday, December 16, 2016, 4:37 p.m.

Light freezing rain and light snow are already being reported across Iowa and Illinois Friday afternoon. This will make roadways slippery tonight.

After a break in the wintry mix later tonight into Saturday morning, a strong cold front blasts through the area early Saturday afternoon and temperatures crash into the single digits shortly after dark and well below zero into Sunday morning.

This front will also bring several hours of light to moderate snow and this is when we’ll see our main accumulation.  Unfortunately, it’ll also be blown around by strong winds causing driving nightmares.

Snowfall totals below are still on target.

I’ve also been talking about the dangerous wind chills that will rush in as the storm departs.

Here are the counties that will be under a “Wind Chill Advisory” and a “Wind Chill Warning” from 9 p.m. Saturday through noon Sunday.

It’ll feel like -20° to -40° during this time!

Be safe out there this weekend!


ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, December 16, 2016, 5:49 a.m.

The third weekend winter storm in as many weeks gets underway Friday and will last through much of Saturday.

Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills follow Saturday Night through Monday morning.

A “Winter Weather Advisory” goes into effect at noon Friday across our northern hometowns and for the rest of the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys Friday evening.  This advisory runs through midnight Saturday.


After a quiet Friday morning, light snow will develop in our western and southwestern hometowns later this morning.  The snow spreads across all of the area Friday afternoon into Friday night and early Saturday.

It’s looking more likely that warmer air will be pulled into this system along and south of Interstate 80.  This will cause the snow to mix with and change over to sleet and then freezing rain.

Across our northern hometowns, it’ll stay in the form of snow.

We get a break from the snow and wintry mix Saturday morning, but snow will re-develop again by Saturday afternoon and last for about six hours.

This is when we’ll see most of our snow accumulation.  The snow ends by midnight Saturday night.


The heaviest snow will be from Maquoketa, Iowa, to Mount Carroll, Illinois, northward.  Four inches or more will accumulate there.

Along Interstate 80 and in the Quad Cities, I still think 2-4″ of new snow will fall.

South of the Quad Cities from around Burlington, Iowa, to Monmouth and Galesburg, Illinois, an inch or two will fall, but they’ll also see some light ice accumulations.


On top of the snow (and ice) accumulations, bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills return.

When you wake up Sunday and Monday mornings, lows will be around -10° in the Quad Cities and even colder to the north.

Once you factor in the wind, it’s going to feel like -20° to -40°.  It only takes minutes for frostbite to set in.

Highs Sunday will stay below zero to the north and near zero in the Quad Cities.  Southern hometown will rise to the single digits.

By the middle of next week, temperatures will rebound back into the 30s.


Dangerous Temperatures & Wind Chills

Temperatures Tuesday evening dropped to below zero north of the Quad Cities before southerly winds brought in slowly rising temperatures.

Sterling, Illinois, dropped to -5°, while Davenport dropped to zero.

The coldest air of the season arrives tonight and Thursday morning.

Low temperatures will drop to below zero across all of the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys.   When the winds are factored in, it’ll feel like -20° to -30°, which is very dangerous if you have to be out for any period of time.


A “Wind Chill Advisory” goes into effect Wednesday evening through 10 a.m. Thursday.

Highs Thursday will likely stay in the single digits in our northern hometowns to around 12° in the Quad Cities and 15° in our southern hometowns.


Light snow will break out late Thursday night into Friday morning.  The best chance of seeing light accumulations during that time period will be around the Quad Cities to the northwest.

Snow will really kick in Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  South and east of the Quad Cities, warm air aloft could cause the snow to change to sleet and then freezing rain.

While that’ll cut back on snow accumulations there, icy conditions will make it more dangerous.

The wintry mix will change back to snow Saturday before ending by evening.

Several inches of snow are likely.  By Thursday, I’ll have a much better idea of accumulations.

It gets even colder Sunday with highs only in the single digits with a low of -10° Sunday night.  That’s the temperature and not the wind chill!

The bottom line:  Bitterly cold temperatures through early next week and a winter storm is likely this Friday and Saturday.


Winter Storm To Worsen Monday

UPDATED POST:  Monday, December 28, 2015, 6:20 p.m.

Now that the wintry mix has transitioned over to all snow and temperatures are slowly starting to fall, the snow will quickly add up.

Earlier today, I was forecasting 1-3″ for the Quad Cities.  I think it’ll be on the higher end of that range and there could be some isolated 4″ totals.

Be safe this evening and early Tuesday morning on area roadways.


UPDATED POST:  Monday, December 28, 2015, 11:37 a.m.

Power outages are becoming more widespread as we head toward the noon hour with the winds really beginning to howl and shake the ice-coated limbs and power lines.

As of 11:30 a.m., more than 4,400 MidAmerican Energy customers are without electricity. Ameren Illinois is reporting about 6,500 customers in our area without power, but Peoria is the hardest hit with more than 12,000 customers in the dark!

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow is coating everything.  This is how my car looked in Rock Island around 10 a.m. after more than six hours of freezing rain and sleet.

Icy Car

Many reports of one-quarter to almost an inch of a freezing rain and sleet combination with almost two inches of snow covering the ground around Cedar Rapids.

More Ice

This is the radar around 10:25 a.m. this morning and it shows there’s still plenty of moisture heading toward the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys.

This will come down as a combination of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain this afternoon before changing to snow tonight.

Here’s how much of a snow and sleet mixture may accumulate before it ends early Tuesday morning.

Snow Forecast

Be safe out there today in this icy and dangerous mess.


ORIGINAL POST:  Monday, December 28, 2015, 4:38 a.m.

The much advertised winter storm is already glazing roadways, trees, and power lines across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys.  This started late Sunday night and by the early morning hours, the wintry mix had reached the Quad Cities.


A “Winter Storm Warning” remains in effect for much of Monday and Monday night and runs through 6 a.m. Tuesday for most of us.  It expires this afternoon across the southeast around Galesburg, Illinois.

Here is how big the surge of moisture the storm has to with to produce freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.  This was 3 a.m. Monday morning.


Temperatures early this morning are already below or near the freezing mark and that will make the commute dangerous from Interstate 80 southward.

The northward progression will worsen driving conditions across the north throughout the morning.

As temperatures warm into the 30s today, the wintry mix could change over to rain, at times, in the Quad Cities and for several hours across the south and help to melt away some of the early morning ice.

However, as temperatures drop again this evening, the rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow combination will change to all snow and continue through part of the night.

On top of the more than one-quarter of an inch of ice, we could see snow accumulations of 1-5″.  One inch totals down around Galesburg, to 1-3″ in the Quad Cities, and maybe 3-5″ totals around Iowa City and Galena.

The higher totals (4-8″) will be well northwest of the Quad Cities.

Winter Details

If this wasn’t bad enough winds of 20-40 miles-per-hour and gusts to 50 will be whipping around the ice covered limbs and power lines causing power outages.

Much colder air arrives by the middle and end of the week with a little bit more light snow Wednesday.

Be careful out there today, tonight, and tomorrow.  This isn’t just a typical Midwestern winter storm with the ice.

Winter has returned.


Dangerous Ice Storm Hits Monday

UPDATED POST:  Sunday, December 27, 2015, 4:53 p.m.

Our “Winter Storm Watch” has been upgraded to a “Winter Storm Warning”.


Over the next 36 hours from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning, eastern Iowa and northern Illinois will see a significant amount of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain.

This will all break out in our southern hometowns before or around midnight Sunday and move northward to the Quad Cities overnight and head into our northern hometowns early Monday morning.

The heaviest ice accumulation will be from the Quad Cities back to southeastern Iowa, where more than one-quarter of an inch will glaze surfaces.

This is a very dangerous winter storm for us because of the heavy icing threat and winds gusting to 50 miles-per-hour, at times, which will likely bring down tree limbs and power lines causing power outages.

As temperatures drop Monday evening and Monday night, we could still pick up 1-3″ of snow around the Quad Cities (likely on the lower end of that range).  The heaviest snow nearby, 2-4, will be around Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Heavy snow is in the forecast for central and western Iowa (6-12″) and heavy rains are expected across central Illinois.

Join me for the very latest beginning at 5 a.m. on “Local 4 News This Morning” Monday.


ORIGINAL POST:  Sunday, December 27, 2015, AM

It’s the calm before the storm.

In a typical winter, I’d likely be watching the storm coming in and working to determine how much snow would blanket the area.

Since we’re in an El Nino winter and have seen a very warm December, this storm is going to be more a “wintry mix” storm and I’m working on the forecast and focusing on how much ice will accumulate and the snow amounts for eastern Iowa and northern Illinois are secondary.

While there’s still some model dependencies, this is looking to mainly be an ice storm for much of northern Illinois and eastern Iowa with some snow and for western Iowa, a heavy snow maker.

For the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys, we’re still under a “Winter Storm Watch” that begins late tonight in our southern hometowns and early Monday from the Quad Cities northward.

This runs through late Monday night.


This is going to be a big impact storm on a still busy travel period coming right after Christmas.  Notice that there are winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings (even a “Blizzard Warning” across Texas in the red) from the Southwestern United States through the Plains up to the Great Lakes.

After a nice day today, a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet moves into our southern hometowns late tonight and will move northward from there arriving in the Quad Cities well before daybreak.  It’ll continue moving north Monday morning.

As temperatures hover in the low-to-mid-30s Monday, there will be periods when the wintry mix will mix with or change to rain, especially in our southern hometowns.

For the Quad Cities, we’ll see mostly freezing rain and sleet with some rain, at times, before it changes over to all light snow Monday evening and Monday night.

As for snow amounts on top of the ice accumulations, the Quad Cities will mainly see 1-3″.  Lesser snow accumulations are expected south and east with more snow off to the northwest.  Around Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, 3-6″ of snow may accumulate.  Western Iowa could see upwards to 8″ of snow with little in the way of ice.


We all know that just a little ice can cause major headaches and the bad news with this system is that we’ll likely see more than one-quarter of an inch of ice.  Some hometowns may see closer to one-half of an inch.

With winds blowing at 20 to 30 miles-per-hour and gusting to 40 or 50 miles-per-hour, this will easily bring down tree limbs and power lines causing power outages.

This has the potential and likelihood of becoming a DANGEROUS WINTER STORM!

After the ice and snow, more typical cold weather will dominate for the remainder of the upcoming week.

I’ll have another update later today.


Winter May Return Monday

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, December 26, 2015, 9:02 a.m.

Our return to winter weather is closer now and there’s still much uncertainty as to how bad it’s going to be.

One thing I’m confident of this Saturday morning is that we’ll see some icy and snowy weather Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

The uncertainty lies in how much ice and how much snow will accumulate.

Here’s how much available moisture the computers are generating for this storm.


Notice that we’re in the bulls eye of the heaviest moisture — 1.57″.  In a very elementary (and unrealistic) setting, this system could produce 16″ of snow if it was all going to fall in the form of snow using the 10:1 ratio for rain to snow.

Well, that’s not going to happen.  Based on the uncertainty of the storm’s path with the leading models, we’re going to see some freezing rain and then rain.  It’ll then change back to freezing rain before mixing with and becoming all snow.

With that being said, expect it to be very sloppy Sunday night through Tuesday.

I’m hoping by later today or early Sunday, we’ll have better model agreement and we’ll know exactly how much of that moisture will be used for ice, for snow, and just a cold rain.

As I always say with a system that’ll bring rain and snow, the more moisture that’s used when it’s raining cuts back on how much is available to fall as freezing rain and snow.

The bottom line:  have a great Saturday and check back later today and, especially, Sunday for my latest update.

The scenario and forecast will be changing before the storm moves toward us.


ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, December 25, 2015, 4:49 p.m.

This is one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Quad Cities with only 0.6″ of snow.

That all could be changing next week with more seasonable temperatures following a potential winter storm.

As I stated earlier today on “Local 4 News This Morning” and on Facebook,  we could be experiencing some significant winter weather Monday and Monday night.

However, this far out, the models are all over the place and are not agreeing on the path.

The two American models that I check out show different solutions.

The GFS is colder and snowier.

GFS 6pm Monday.gif

The NAM is initially warmer with mostly rain and then a transition to snow.

NAM Monday 6pm.gif

The models update every six hours, so there’s plenty of time for them to come to an agreement before Monday. And, this is not even taking into consideration the European model.

The bottom line is that we could have a big snow, an icy mix, or a heavy, cold rain event.

Keep up on the latest updates this weekend.


Icy Mix & Snow Threat Monday

UPDATED POST:  SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2014, 4:01 p.m.

A winter storm starting out with freezing rain, sleet, and snow and then changing over to all moderate to heavy snow is still in the forecast early Monday morning into Monday afternoon.

Here are the updated snow forecast totals for Monday.  The biggest change has been to shift some heavy snow into our southern hometowns.

Snow Update 021414

You can see the original contours and the details below.


ORIGINAL POST:  SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2014, 8:29 a.m.

Enjoy the sun and cloud mix Sunday with highs in the 20s because our next winter storm is threatening us with a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Monday.

Here’s the reason we always tell you to keep up on the latest forecast with storms.

Our big warm-up is still coming Tuesday through Thursday.  However, instead of a wintry mix changing over to all rain Monday, it’s now likely to change over to all snow and accumulate!

Monday WWA

A “Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 3 a.m.- 3 p.m. Monday for much of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois (6 a.m.-6 p.m. for Knox and Stark counties in Illinois).

A combination of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will begin across the area after midnight and intensify Monday morning.

The best chance of seeing freezing rain will be south of the Quad Cities.  From around the metro area northward, mostly sleet and snow is expected.  By mid-morning, all of the wintry mix will change over to all snow and start piling up.

Here is the situation based on the American GFS models.

This first map shows light moisture over the area at 6 a.m. Monday and that blue line across the Quad Cities shows the freezing line.  Thus, it’s very likely we’ll be seeing a combination of freezing rain and snow (south), icy mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the Quad Cities, and snow and sleet (north).


The map below is at noon.  By that time, the cold air has arrived and all of the precipitation should be in the form of snow.  And, notice that the green is darker indication heavier snow.


By 6 p.m., the winter storm pulls away and the snow should end as light snow or flurries.

Here is the likelihood of seeing 4″ of snow or more from the NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.  The greens show a 20-40% chance and the blues indicate a 40%+ chance.


I’m showing you that graphic because it lines up with my forecast.  Here’s how much snow I’m predicting for Monday.

Snow Forecast Monday


Thank you to the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities for the base map with the “Winter Weather Advisory” colored in for Monday.

After this system, it warms up this week into the 30s and 40s Tuesday through Saturday.

As a matter of fact, another storm moves in late week and it should be all rain.  This is the precipitation forecast map for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.


It could be a decent rain maker (0.5″ or more is possible).  That would not be good on top of melting away the 5″ of snow on the ground now in the Quad Cities and the new snow coming in Monday.

This does raise some flooding concerns, but let’s deal with one system at a time and that would be the ice and snow coming in Monday.

I’ll give you another update later today and I’ll have the very latest beginning at 5 a.m. Monday on “CBS4 News This Morning” in the Quad Cities.


Celebrating Valentine’s Weekend With A Quick Snow Update

UPDATE POST:  SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2014, 6:08 p.m.

Officially, 1.4″ of snow has fallen in the Quad Cities through 6 p.m.

This is now one of the ten snowiest winters on record!  (See the updated graphic below.)



It’s the weekend and I’m celebrating Valentine’s Day with my family today, so I wish you a nice weekend, too.


This picture is actually from two years ago, but we’re having another one of those heart-shaped ice cream cakes (strawberry) and Papa Murphy’s pizza (one Mediterranean with chicken and the other sausage).

I’m also going to show my sister, Tammy, the movie, “Sordid Lives” and have a few laughs.  It’s a “black comedy about white trash”!  (And, no, Gretel will not be watching it!  That’s your cue that it’s not PG-13 when you watch the trailer!)


With that being said, here’s your simple “no questions asked, no questions answered” weather update.

A six-hour window of snow this afternoon and evening will accumulate about 1-3″ with isolated 4″ far north.

Snow Today

This is now the 15th snowiest winter on record in the Quad Cities even before today’s snow arrives!

Snow Update 021414

An inch of snow today will make this the 10th snowiest winter on record!

A very messy situation is likely after bedtime Sunday night into Monday.  I’ll have a full blog tomorrow morning with all of the information on that.

This system could bring accumulating snow or ice before we finally warm up into the 40s next week with rain by the end of the week!

Enjoy your weekend and check back in tomorrow for more on Sunday night and Monday’s ice and snow potential.


Saturday’s Weekend Winter Storm Update

A significant winter storm with freezing rain, sleet, rain and snow is on the way today, tonight, and tomorrow.

A “Winter Storm Warning” covers all of eastern Iowa and west-central and northwestern Illinois from 6 p.m. Saturday through 6 p.m Sunday.  If you’re traveling toward Chicago today, there is a “Winter Weather Advisory” in effect later today.

Winter Storm Warning

Here is the radar from 7 a.m. today showing a large amount of moisture over Missouri. This will be moving northeast today toward us reaching our southern hometowns first as freezing rain and sleet.

7am Radar

It’s already slippery out there from the glaze of ice from Thursday night and Friday.  Please be careful.

As this moves northward and we get that wintry ice mix today, it will quickly change over to moderate to heavy snow this evening and tonight.  Here is the forecast map for 6 a.m. Sunday.


That large shading of green over us in and near the Quad Cities indicates the heavier snow.  As the low pulls off through Indiana and the eastern Great Lakes, the snow will diminish in intensity by early afternoon Sunday.

Here is how much moisture is available.


It’s still showing a nice swath of 0.75-1″ for us.  If this was translated to a 10:1 snow-rain ratio, that would easily be 7.5-10″ of snow.  However, any moisture that comes down as freezing rain, rain, or sleet will cut back on the snow totals.  And, that is what I’m expecting.

Here’s one more map to show the big story before I give my projected snow totals and they have dropped for some of our eastern and southeastern hometowns because of the freezing rain and sleet.

6inches or More

This shows that there is a 30-80% chance of seeing 6″ or more of snow, depending on where you live across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys.  Basically, I’m showing this to point out that the best chance of the heaviest snow will be across eastern Iowa.

Here are the complete storm snow forecast totals for later today, tonight, and tomorrow.

sat snow forecast

One last note, these are ranges.  Some of you may be on the lower end and some may be on the higher end.

Be safe out there this weekend.

If anything needs to be updated today, I’ll be around to do that.  Otherwise, have a great weekend


Winter Storm — Still Waiting on More Certainty

FINAL UPDATE:  Thursday, December 19, 2013, 4:12 p.m.

First off, the “Freezing Rain Advisory” has been push back to midnight tonight through 9 a.m. Friday.

There is now a “Winter Storm Watch” (blue on the map) in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.  This means significant snow is becoming more likely across eastern Iowa and western and northwestern Illinois.

Winter Storm Watch

Let me get this out of the way now.  If you live in Knox or Stark counties in Illinois, you are under a different weather service office that hasn’t issued a “Winter Storm Watch” yet for their forecast area.  YOU WILL STILL GET ACCUMULATING SNOW!

Here is the available moisture being generated from this storm by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.


It shows a solid 0.5″-1″ of available moisture.  If this was a perfect 10:1 snow, that would translate to  5-10″ of snow.

The afternoon models are continuing the trend from earlier today that the storm will be tracking more to the east and not to the north.  This would keep eastern Iowa and northern Illinois in the colder air with less icing and more snow.

Here is the new 3 a.m. Sunday map from the GFS.


And, this is 9 a.m. Sunday.

Sunday 9 AM GFS

The bottom line, as it looks right now, is that we could have 6-12 hours of moderate snow in and around the Quad Cities.

Early indications for planning purposes 48 hours out, AND THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY, is that 6-9″ of snow may fall from Freeport, Illinois, to the Quad Cities, to Burlington, Iowa, to the northwest to Dubuque and Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Southeast of the Quad Cities, 3-6″ of snow could accumulate.

Remember, this is still two days out and there will be deviations to this forecast as better data and a more concrete storm path is established.

I’ll have another update Friday morning!


UPDATE:  Thursday, December 19, 2013, 11:03 a.m.

The new American models (NOAA’s GFS) is out now and it now has the storm on a more southerly track.  If this continues to verify, it would indicate more cold air to work with and more snow, possibly heavy.


It would also cut back on the icing threat in the Quad Cities.

As I’ve stated all along, there is not much consistency, so let’s see what the late afternoon runs show.  I’ll update this again by evening.


ORIGINAL POST:  Thursday, December 19, 2013, 7:37 a.m.

Happy Thursday!

I have to admit that I’m getting old or the rigors of getting little sleep and waking up at 1:30 a.m. five days a week for work are getting to me.  I dozed through the two episodes of “The X-Files” we watched last night and I saw part of the Michael Buble Christmas special between dozing!


I loved Mary J. Blige and Mariah Carey was less robotic and seemed to have a good time.  But, we’re here to talk about weather on my day off.  Yes, I slept until 6:45 a.m.!

Freezing Rain Advisory

Before we even talk weekend snow, remember that it will be very slippery out there Thursday night and Friday with freezing rain and temperatures back below freezing.

The counties you see painted in fuchsia on this map are under a “Freezing Rain Advisory” from 6 p.m. tonight until 6 a.m. Friday.  It’s going to get slick with more snow melting today and 40° highs.  That will freeze later overnight.

Snow's a comin'

Now let’s talk about getting prepared for the weekend.  We’re now more than 48 hours away from the onset of a winter storm Saturday and there is still little certainty in the forecast.

What I do know is that we’ll see snow, we’ll likely see freezing rain and sleet, and some rain.  The problem is how much.

As I mentioned last night and I’ll re-post the link, it all depends on the path the storm takes.

The latest American models are still hinting at a more northwesterly track.  For the Quad Cities, that would mean more warm air to work with and more ice threat and less heavy snow.  That heavy snow would be northwest of the Quad Cities.

This is midnight Saturday on the GFS.  It shows us in the cold air and moderate snow falling in the darker green.


This is six hours later at 6 a.m. Sunday.


The storm is pulling off to the northeast, but snow will still be moderately falling.

The big change that I noticed is that by noon Sunday, the snow may be over.

Now, here’s another big piece of the winter storm puzzle other than the storm track.  This storm will have plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with.  This map shows available moisture from Saturday evening through Monday evening.

Sat PM- Mon PM

It shows the Quad Cities with 0.50″-0.75″ of available moisture.  For simplicity sake, a 10:1 ratio of snow and rain would show 5-8″ of snow for the Quad Cities.  However, any rain or freezing rain falling Saturday and Saturday night would significantly cut back on those totals.

So, until a more definite path is known, we’re still waiting.

The bottom line is that if you have travel plans, expect messy weather.

I’ll update you again this afternoon.