Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Diversity in America & the 2016 Presidential Election

Politics and the 2016 presidential race is the hot topic during these cold winter months.

You can’t get away from hearing about it on television, the radio, and, especially, on social media.

Pretty much all of the attention has been focused on Iowa and New Hampshire because they are the first states to hold caucuses (Iowa, February 1) and primaries (New Hampshire, February 9).

As I write this, I want to throw out two things here to be fair — (1) I’m a Hillary Clinton supporter and I’ll be as objective as I can.

Hillary AP

And, (2) while many “candidates” are at odds with my marriage and my family, the amount of support for Donald Trump scares me.

You may have noticed that “candidates” is in quotation marks because Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Martin O’Malley have no chance of winning.  You could probably safely add Jeb Bush and Chris Christie to this list, too.

Now, the points of the blog — the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, why the faith in those two states may be overrated, the polls, and the media needing a story.

Another disclaimer here:  I work in the television news business as a meteorologist, so I have no control in what candidates or stories we cover.

Iowa NH

Iowa and New Hampshire are a thousand miles apart, but they gets plenty of national publicity in the long election campaigns because unknown national candidates can gain traction there (Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Bernie Sanders in 2016).

While Huckabee is DOA in Iowa this time around, the state is still important to Trump and Ted Cruz, who are battling it out on the Republican side and for Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side for the same reason — bragging rights.

It can definitely boost national recognition and campaign contributions.

For us in the Illinois Quad Cities, bordering Iowa gives us a chance to see candidates that may be history by the March 15th Illinois primary.  (For those unfamiliar with the Quad Cities, it’s two larger cities in Iowa and two in Illinois on the Mississippi River separated by bridges — even though other communities feel they should be part of the “Quad” Cities.)

That’s why Iowa and New Hampshire are important.  Here’s why they really aren’t vital to the scheme of things on a national level.

Iowa has a population around 3.1 million people and New Hampshire 1.3 million. Combined, that’s 4.4 million people.

322.2 million people live in the United States, so those two states amount to 1.3% of the country’s population.

However, if you look closer at the population of those two states, you’ll find that Iowa is 91% white and Hampshire is 94% white.

diversity

I even saw a story refer to Iowa as “lily white” and New Hampshire as “lily whiter”.  It is what it is, but that’s not a true representation of America.

The demographics for our country are crudely broken down as:  63% White, 17% Hispanic, 13% African American, and 5% Asian.

For those reasons, I find it hard to put a lot of faith that Iowa and New Hampshire will decide the next election when you look at population and demographics.

And, then there are the polls!  I look at them, but I don’t cry over them.  It’s all about who is conducting them and how the questions are asked (or how you think they are asked).

RCP Sunday.jpg

For example, in Iowa, Clinton and Sanders are within points of each other in most polls, yet there are others that show Clinton with a commanding lead.

It’s a given that Sanders is easily winning New Hampshire (19-point lead).  The polls show it and the media is serving it to you on a platter!

Yet, you’re not hearing about Clinton’s 22-point lead in South Carolina, the 33-point lead in North Carolina, and the 36-point Florida lead.  It would deflate the underdog Sanders’ story and the media loves a good story.

We really won’t know the outcome and the accuracy of these polls until people get out to their caucuses and primaries.  It’s very important to make your vote count.

The campaigning process for the presidential election is getting longer and longer because there’s so much money to be made and wasted.

These are my thoughts.  If you agree or disagree, let me know.  Just do it diplomatically.

Anthony

 

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