Posts Tagged ‘rain’

Random Friday Thoughts — June 2, 2017

I can’t believe that it’s June already.

With Memorial Day behind us, it’s “unofficially” summer and it’s definitely feeling like it across the Florida Panhandle and it’s only going to get warmer and more humid!

Thank you for checking out my Random Friday Thoughts and have a great weekend.

SAD DAY WITH MANY MORE TO COME…

Climate Change

CLOSER TO STABILITY…

My apartment is still not all set up, but all of the boxes are unpacked now. ¬†I’m really thinking I’ll have the walls decorated soon and I can share where I’m living with you.

Well, you’ve already seen my surroundings outside from my walks. ūüôā

Lizard

Speaking of that, I had to move another killed duck — the dead duck count is now up to seven in my four weeks here! ūüė¶

As for work, I train on the morning and midday show next week and my official on-air start date is Monday, June 12th. ¬†This has been a long process with too many meteorologists on board, so I’m ready!

MISSING THE SEASONS….

I mentioned the heat and humidity earlier and I already miss the Midwest seasons. When it gets warm there during the day, you know there’s usually a nice 20¬į temperature drop off at night.

We don’t get that here!

With the warm Gulf of Mexico so close to Panama City, it’s stays muggy and warm all night.

After¬†being here¬†three weeks, I finally broke down the other night and turned on the AC! While I know it’ll likely stay on until October, when it only dropped off to 83¬į in my apartment the other night, I knew it was time. ūüôā

Lightning

In almost a month that I’ve been here, it’s only rained three times in Panama City — two were stronger thunderstorms and one was a pop-up shower event.

This cool lightning show produced storms to the east, but no rain here.

PRAYERS FOR OLIVIA

It saddened me earlier this week when I learned that Olivia Newton-John is fighting cancer again after being in remission for 25 years. ūüė¶

I know that she’s a fighter and that she’ll win again!

This photo is from May 30, 2014, when I saw her at The Flamingo in Las Vegas, Nevada!

Olivia

Best of luck, Olivia, ¬†You’re in my thoughts and prayers.

“MAMMA MIA: HERE WE GO AGAIN”

I can’t believe that “Mamma Mia!” hit movie theaters nine years ago this summer.

The $52 million musical based on the music of ABBA is now of the biggest movies of all time.  It grossed $610 million worldwide.

I was over the moon recently when I learned that the sequel is scheduled to be released on July 20, 2018! ¬†I know where I’ll be on that hot and muggy Florida afternoon.

In the original, the beautiful Greek setting of the wedding sold me on visiting the country. ¬†Ironically, even before “Mamma Mia: ¬†Here We Go Again” was announced, I was already considering a spring 2018 visit there. ¬†It must be fate!

To the writers, producers, and the director, if Pierce Brosnan is back, please, please, please, don’t let him have too many musical numbers. ¬†His songs in the original were painful!!!!!!!!

“HOUSE OF CARDS”

The fifth season of the critically acclaimed Netflix series dropped this week.

After being down and out over the real 2016 presidential election, I can’t wait to see how the Underwood campaign progresses with Frank and Claire fighting for his reelection with Claire as the VP candidate!

Ironically, it sounds like Frank is lip-syncing my words and sentiments! ūüôā

P.S. ¬†Seven months later, I don’t really feel any better than I did on the night of November 8, 2016. ¬†It doesn’t help much to hear about all of the travesties of the real life world we’re enduring with #45 and with me living in a true “red state”.

SPEAKING OF “RED STATE”

I’m planning on watching the Kevin Smith-directed movie again this weekend. ¬†It was my 8th favorite movie of 2012.

It stars one of my favorite actresses, Academy Award winner Melissa Leo. Golden Globe winner John Goodman is also in the movie.

Warning:  This trailer contains violent scenes and very, very, adult language.

Here’s my original movie review. ¬†By the way, I gave it an “A” in early 2012.

https://anthonypeoples.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/this-red-state-is-violent-deadly/

DREAMING OF….

Nicole Kidman!

thepaperboy_nicolekidman_web

I remember some of my dreams and some I don’t. ¬†The other night I dreamt that Nicole and I were hanging out as friends.

It’s been weeks now since I watched “Lion”, her amazing Oscar-nominated movie, and “Big Little Lies”, her HBO miniseries, so I don’t know what prompted the dream.

Maybe it’s time to have a Kidman movie weekend this summer: ¬†“Moulin Rouge!”, “The Golden Compass”, “The Hours”, and “Australia” (I have the last two, but have never watched them.)

“SPLIT”

The psychological thriller is creepy and there’s more coming.

The movie deals with “Dissociative Identity Disorder” or multiple personality and stars the incredible James McAvoy, whose character suffers from 23 “split” personalities.

The $9 million film has already grossed an astounding $278 million (I hope McAvoy is getting a nice chunk of change on the backside).

It was great seeing Daytime Emmy and Grammy Award nominee and Tony Award winner (“Cats”,¬†1983) Betty Buckley (“Carrie”) again in a movie.

There’s a surprise appearance at the end of “Split” that lets you know that this is a sequel to another movie and that both movies’ stars are back for the January 18, 2019 sequel called “Glass”.

GRADE:  A-

“FEAR THE WALKING DEAD”

While I’m still on the fence about whether I’ll be back for the eighth season of “The Walking Dead” in October, the series’ sequel, “Fear The Walking Dead” returns this weekend for its third season.

I can’t wait!

P.S. ¬†I know I’ll probably cave in and watch Rick and company’s return this fall. ¬†I just didn’t care for season 7 of “The Walking Dead”, which saddens me because it used to be one of my favorite series.

THAT’S IT

With all the craziness in the world, make it the best in your little part of it!

Anthony

Record Rain Monday & More Is Coming

It’s the middle of January and well into winter, yet I’m talking about a record rain event to kick off our week.

After an icy start Monday morning, we picked up 0.86″ of rain in the Quad Cities. ¬†That was a record amount of rain for January 16th.

monday-rain

It was also more rain than we saw for the entire month last January. ¬†We only picked up 0.44″ of rain (and melted snow) in January 2016.

It was also the most rain in one day in the Quad Cities in three months. ¬†On October 6, 2016, we recorded 1.10″ of rain.

Rain

We have another system coming in Thursday night and Friday with rain and more rain is expected by Sunday.

Anthony

Dangerous Icing Tonight & Early Monday

UPDATED POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 6:09 p.m.

Right now, light freezing rain is being reported from Ottumwa to Fort Madison, Iowa, to Macomb, Illinois.

In the afternoon update, all of eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois will be under the “Winter Weather Advisory” at some point tonight into Monday.

The importance of this is that all of us will see freezing rain. ¬†The only differences across the area will be the start and end times for the “Advisory”. ¬†That also coincides with the timing of when the worst of the icing will be taking place.

 

With that being said, just go through this list of Iowa and Illinois counties until you find yours and that’ll let you know the hours when the worse icing will take place.

The “Winter Weather Advisory” is already underway for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois. ¬†This will expire at 9 a.m. Monday.

Knox and Stark counties in Illinois will go into the “Advisory” at 6 p.m. Sunday and this will run through noon Monday.

From midnight Sunday through noon Monday, the “Advisory” covers Cedar, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Bureau, Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

The “Advisory” now starts at 3 a.m. Monday through noon Monday for Clinton and Jackson counties in Iowa and for Carroll and Whiteside counties in Illinois.

It also runs from 3 a.m. to 3 p.m. Monday for Jo Daviess County, Illinois.

Anthony

UPDATED POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 11:21 a.m.

The start time for the “Winter Weather Advisory” (blueish-purple shading) for some of us has been pushed back again.

It still goes into effect at 3 p.m. today through noon Monday for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois.

It now runs from midnight Sunday through noon Monday for Cedar, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

The “Advisory” now starts at 3 a.m. Monday through noon Monday for Clinton and Jackson counties in Iowa.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Sunday, January 15, 2017, 6:45 a.m.

The highly-anticipated ice storm I’ve been talking about for over a week now will arrive later today.

The worst of the icing and hazardous driving conditions will be Sunday night and the first half of Monday.

 

Winter advisories and warnings Sunday extend from the Rockies (for heavy snow) to Iowa and Illinois (for mostly ice).

This winter storm is still located over the southwestern United States and is already bringing icy weather to the Plains early Sunday morning.

As of this posting, the heaviest icing in still across southern Missouri and Kansas. This will be moving northeast today.

If you still have errands to run or if you’re heading off to church, most of Sunday morning is still expected to be dry.

The start times for the advisories remain unchanged from my Saturday evening update.

 

A “Winter Weather Advisory” (blueish-purple shading) goes into effect at 3 p.m. today through noon Monday for Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, and Washington counties in Iowa, and for Henderson and Warren counties in Illinois.

The “Advisory” runs from 6 p.m. today through noon Monday for Knox and Stark counties in Illinois.

And, ¬†the “Advisory” starts at 9 p.m. Sunday and expires at noon Monday for¬†Cedar, Clinton, Jackson, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, and Scott counties in Iowa and Henry, Mercer, and Rock Island in Illinois.

Ice Ray

WINTRY MIX START TIMES

While there may patchy light snow, sleet, or freezing rain moving in late morning, I think our southern hometowns from around Fairfield and Burlington, Iowa, to Monmouth and Galesburg, Illinois, will see the more general wintry mix begin around 2-5 p.m.

The more concentrated wintry mix and icing event moves northward to the Quad Cities and along and south of Interstate 80 from around 5-8 p.m. Sunday.

It should reach northern hometowns by midnight and this may be mostly light snow there, at first.

As temperatures warm south to north Sunday night, the wintry mix will become mostly a freezing rain event.

Temperatures by late morning Monday will be rising above freezing, so rain will fall and the ice will slowly melt. ¬†However, it may take until early afternoon for this to occur. ¬†I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the “advisories” are extended into Monday afternoon.

ICE AMOUNTS

I’m still expectng around one-tenth of an inch of ice to accumulate for most of us.

The heaviest coating of ice, up to one-quarter of an inch, will be to the southwest of the Quad Cities.

 

One final note is that winds are not going to breezy with this storm, so even when we get a coating of ice on trees limbs and power lines, it won’t be whipping them around¬†increasing the chances of power outages.

The bottom line is that most of Sunday morning is still expected to be dry.  You still have some time to run to the store to buy last minute groceries or supplies!

Snow's a comin'

Also, it’s always wise to have plenty of gas in your car in case you’re in an accident. ¬†You’ll want to be able to turn the heat on, occasionally, until service crews and rescuers get to you.

I’ll monitor the start of the wintry mix and icing and update you, as needed, today.

Anthony

Christmas Travel Concerns

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, December 23, 2016, 6:12 a.m.

Two days before Christmas and we have two weather systems that’ll create some travel problems for Iowa and Illinois.

The first system arrives today. ¬†With highs of 32¬į-37¬į, we’ll see a combination of rain and snow. ¬†Northern hometowns will see almost all snow. ¬†Along Interstate 80 and to the south, this wintry mix may change over to mostly rain this afternoon.

christmas

A “Winter Weather Advisory” goes into effect this morning through 9 p.m. Friday. ¬†This includes Jo Daviess and Jackson counties. ¬†Snow accumulations there could be 1-3″. ¬†For the Quad Cities and along I-80, an inch may accumulate, but only a dusting is expected south.

If you’re traveling across northern Iowa today, 3-6″ of snow will fall there.

We get a break Saturday, but the next system starts moving in late Saturday night and early Christmas morning.  With dense fog and drizzle developing and temperatures near freezing, it could become rather slick early Christmas morning, especially north.

Fog

As the main system moves in Christmas afternoon and evening, it’ll be all rain because temperatures will warm into the upper-40s and 50s.

We could even hear a few rumbles of thunder Sunday evening.

The front will pass through Sunday night and bring rather blustery conditions with winds approaching 40 miles-per-hour or higher Monday with temperatures crashing throughout the day.

Christmas Outside

Happy holidays and be safe out there today and this weekend.

Anthony

Big Weather Changes Occur In November

October 2016 is history now and it goes down in the record books with temperatures over five degrees above average and as one of the fifteen warmest Octobers on record.

Now that November is here, we typically see big temperature drops from the beginning of the month to the end of the month.

We start the month with an average high of 57¬į and a low of 38¬į. ¬†By the end of the month, we lose about fifteen degrees.

The average highs and lows at the end of the month are 41¬į and 24¬į.

november

If you like extremes, the warmest November temperature in the Quad Cities is 80¬į, back on November 1st of 2000 and 1933.

The coldest November temperature for the metro area is -10¬į. ¬†That was set back on November 29, 1891.

In a typical November, we pick up 2.56″ of rain and melted snow. ¬†We’ve had as much as 6.77″ in November 1992 and as little as 0.18″ in November 1904.

As for snow, the average for November is 1.2″. ¬†We’ve had as much as 15.6″ in November 1974 and there were five years on record with not a flake of snow.

If you think back to last winter, it was an interesting one.

We picked up 9.9″ of snow on November 20th (2.9″) and 21st (7″).

Snow Saturday Morning

That broke the record for the biggest two-day November snowfall in the Quad Cities.

Record Snow Nov

However, after that, we only picked up 14.2″ of snow for the rest of the winter for a 24.1″ winter total in the Quad Cities.

The average snow for a winter in the metro area is 31.6″.

Anthony

Big Temperature Drop On The Way (This Fall)

It’s now September and I’m sure some of you are ready for the cooler temperatures and pumpkin-flavored everything!

Pumpkin Pie Vodka

We ended August with over eight inches of rain (8.07″) making it the eighth wettest August on record in the Quad Cities.

While we still have three more weeks before the official beginning of fall, it’s now “Meteorological Fall”.

Met Fall

That’s what meteorologists call the three months of September, October, and November, the transition between the three warmest months of the year to the three coldest months.

This is also the time of the year when we see the biggest drop in temperatures.¬† At the beginning, September 1st, the average highs and lows are 82¬į and 60¬į.

By the end of November, the average high is 41¬į and the low is 24¬į!

Over the next three months, we normally have 8.62″ of rain (and melted snow).¬† Yes, snow.¬† In November, we average 1.2″ of snow!

Anthony

Heavy Snow & Wind For Much of Iowa

For a week now, I’ve been talking about a big winter storm with its sights set on the Midwest.¬† I’ve been telling you to keep up on the latest forecast because some parts of Iowa could be picking up some heavy snow.

Now that the storm system is near Las Vegas, Nevada, Monday morning and will move to the southern Plains this evening and then to the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning, I’m pretty confident in forecasting mainly a rain event for the Quad Cities and most of Illinois and mostly a snow event for Iowa (except for the southeastern part of the state).

We’ll see a wintry mix late tonight that’ll change over to rain for the Quad Cities and much of Illinois Tuesday. By the time it ends Tuesday night, the rain will change back to light snow. Here’s how much snow may fall.

 

As you can see, this snow will more of a driving inconvenience for the Quad Cities, southeastern Iowa, and much of Illinois, with an inch or less of snow expected.  But, we could see anywhere from one-half to one inch of rain!

Just to the northwest of the Quad Cities, 1-3″ of snow may fall around Galena, Illinois, back to Maquoketa, Iowa.¬† Isolated 4″ totals are possible.

However, western and central Iowa may easily pick up 3-8″ of snow with a few higher totals.¬† If that wasn’t bad enough, there will be a lot of wind with this storm causing blizzard conditions.

Look at the warnings out of the Des Moines National Weather Service office.

 

The red indicates a “Blizzard Warning” and the fuchsia is a “Winter Storm Warning”.¬† It’s going to dangerous across much of Iowa Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Once again, the Quad Cities will be missing out on the big snow this time.

It was one year ago today that we picked up 13.8″ from a snowstorm that actually started out as rain!

Anthony

Still Looking Snowy Tuesday, But…

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, January 30, 2016, 4:18 p.m.

Here’s a quick update. ¬†I’ve really enjoyed highs today near 50¬į in the Quad Cities.

The big storm that we’ve been watching since it was near Japan earlier this week is now just off the Pacific coast and should move over land tomorrow. ¬†When that happens, the amount of data we’ll have will increase drastically and so will the confidence in the winter storm forecast for Monday night and Tuesday.

The latest trend for the Quad Cities, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois is a warmer forecast.  This would give us a wintry mix late Monday night, some rain Tuesday, and a transition to snow Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.

This would also cut back on how much snow we’ll see. ¬†At this time, the heaviest snow, 6″+, will fall across western and central Iowa.

Now, with that being said, that’s how it looks this evening. ¬†This is all subject to change tomorrow once the storm comes ashore.

I’ll have another update Sunday and it’ll likely have more concrete solutions for what we’ll see Tuesday.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, January 30, 2016, 6:48 a.m.

We’re now just three days away from a big snowstorm that’ll drop some heavy snow across the Midwest. ¬†Parts of eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois could be getting in on some of that, too!

Before that, weekend temperatures will warm well into the 40s to around 50¬į Saturday and into the 40s Sunday with light rain.

Now, let’s talk snow.

Snow Saturday Morning

The storm system that’ll bring us the snow is still out in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to come ashore Sunday along the west coast. ¬†At that time, it’ll track to the southern Plains and then make its way to the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening.

Sounds simple enough?  Yes.  But, from a weather forecasting standpoint, no.  The problem lies in what path does it take across Missouri and Illinois.

Some models have the storm farther north this morning and some have it farther south!

If the low pressure system tracks across the Quad Cities, it’ll keep the metro area and much of Illinois in the warmer air longer and cut back on snow.

If the storm tracks toward Chicago out of Missouri, we could be seeing heavier snow in eastern Iowa and a quicker transition from rain or a wintry mix to snow.

Here’s NOAA’s GFS forecast map for noon Tuesday.

Noon Tuesday GFS

So, the big question regarding heavy snow is which path out of Missouri will the low take on the way to the Great Lakes.

I’m very comfortable saying that western and central Iowa will see heavy snow, 6″ or more.

Remember the map I showed you Friday. ¬†At this point in the game with the uncertainty, it’s still valid.

Snow Tuesday

For now, plan on much of Iowa getting a lot of snow. ¬†As you head toward eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois, we’re still in a holding pattern — will we see several inches or more or less?

There is a lot of moisture associated with this storm.

Moisture Tuesday

For simplicity sake, it’s all snow and we use the 10:1 rule, some places could see between 6-12″ of snow.

If the Quad Cities ends up getting on the cold side, we’ll get a big snow. ¬†But, if we’re on the warm side, a moderate rain event with a little snow on the backside is more likely.

If the moderate to heavy snow potential wasn’t enough,¬†there’s going to be a lot of wind with this storm causing considerable blowing and drifting snow, where the heaviest snow falls.

I’ll have another update later in the day Saturday.

Anthony

Next Week’s Snow: Many Details To Work Out

UPDATED POST: THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016, 4:35 p.m.

Here’s an evening update on the winter storm for next week. ¬†Of course, I’ll have the latest on “Local 4 News This Morning” Friday from 5-7 a.m.

While the storm is still out in the Pacific Ocean, the models are coming together on solutions that’ll bring some heavy snow to parts of Iowa. ¬†However, a pinpoint forecast is still premature.

Based on the evening data I’m seeing, a wintry mix arrives across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois late Monday night. ¬†It’ll be cold enough that some of us could see light snow or ice accumulation.

However, the path of the low pressure system will be close enough to us that we’ll be on the warm side of the system during much of Tuesday. ¬†This means rain.

Back across the northwestern half of Iowa, it would be snow Tuesday.

Colder air arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday would bring a transition to accumulating snow to the Quad Cities.

All of that analysis will likely shift and change before early next week.

So, based on the the evening information, that’s where we stand. ¬†There’ll still plenty of time before a clearer path and confidence is high enough to throw accumulation totals out to you.

If you start hearing them Friday and Saturday, take it with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST: THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016, 7:03 a.m.

I promise I won’t get on a soap box this morning.

However, if you’re already reading this, you know that I tell it how it is when it comes to life and, especially, weather forecasting.

I’m not going to throw out premature snow forecast totals just to get you to click on my blog or share it.¬† And, I’ll definitely not brag about how many people are viewing my blogs even though I have access to that information.

With that being said, after we enjoy a nice warm weekend with highs in the 45¬į-50¬į range, winter returns with a vengeance early next week.

A storm that is still well out in the Pacific will come ashore and by early next week start moving northeast out of the southern Plains.

The exact track of that storm will dictate who’ll see heavy snow, who’ll see heavy rain, and who’ll get heavy rain that changes over to accumulating snow.

Snow Potential

All of that will be playing out Tuesday and Wednesday in the Midwest.

My current thinking is that we’ll be seeing mild temperatures Tuesday with rain developing.

By Tuesday evening, colder air will be spilling in and the rain will change over to accumulating snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

After that, it’ll be much colder for a couple of days.

The bottom line is that it’s way too early to predict exactly where the heaviest of snow will fall and how much that will be.

CT Snow

The details I just shared with you will likely change many times before early next week.

As a forecaster, I’m responsible and I’m not going to sensationalize the event to get more readers.

I’ll keep you updated as we head through the weekend leading into this snow event.

Anthony

Winter May Return Monday

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, December 26, 2015, 9:02 a.m.

Our return to winter weather is closer now and there’s still much uncertainty as to how bad it’s going to be.

One thing I’m confident of this Saturday morning is that we’ll see some icy and snowy weather Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

The uncertainty lies in how much ice and how much snow will accumulate.

Here’s how much available moisture the computers are generating for this storm.

qpf.gif

Notice that we’re in the bulls eye of the heaviest moisture — 1.57″. ¬†In a very elementary (and unrealistic) setting, this system could produce 16″ of snow if it was all going to fall in the form of snow using the 10:1 ratio for rain to snow.

Well, that’s not going to happen. ¬†Based on the uncertainty of the storm’s path with the leading models, we’re going to see some freezing rain and then rain. ¬†It’ll then change back to freezing rain before mixing with and becoming all snow.

With that being said, expect it to be very sloppy Sunday night through Tuesday.

I’m hoping by later today or early Sunday, we’ll have better model agreement and we’ll know exactly how much of that moisture will be used for ice, for snow, and just a cold rain.

As I always say with a system that’ll bring rain and snow, the more moisture that’s used when it’s raining cuts back on how much is available to fall as freezing rain and snow.

The bottom line:  have a great Saturday and check back later today and, especially, Sunday for my latest update.

The scenario and forecast will be changing before the storm moves toward us.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, December 25, 2015, 4:49 p.m.

This is one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Quad Cities with only 0.6″ of snow.

That all could be changing next week with more seasonable temperatures following a potential winter storm.

As I stated earlier today on¬†“Local 4 News This Morning” and on Facebook, ¬†we could be experiencing some significant winter weather Monday and Monday night.

However, this far out, the models are all over the place and are not agreeing on the path.

The two American models that I check out show different solutions.

The GFS is colder and snowier.

GFS 6pm Monday.gif

The NAM is initially warmer with mostly rain and then a transition to snow.

NAM Monday 6pm.gif

The models update every six hours, so there’s plenty of time for them to come to an agreement before Monday. And, this is not even taking into consideration the European model.

The bottom line is that we could have a big snow, an icy mix, or a heavy, cold rain event.

Keep up on the latest updates this weekend.

Anthony