Posts Tagged ‘wind’

The Cold Blast Is A Bigger Concern

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, January 9, 2015, 3:20 p.m.

Light snow is now falling in the Quad Cities, but it’s very dry in nature and you’ll likely see it blow across the roadways and off houses.  It will accumulate on grassy surfaces.

To the south and east where it’s snowing heavier, here are some reported snow totals:  2.0″ Macomb (IL); 2.0″ Industry (McDonough County, IL); and 1.5″ Princeton (IL).

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, January 9, 2015, 5:00 a.m.

All week long, I’ve talked about the unseasonably warm weather coming to an end this weekend.  The cold Arctic air will blast across Iowa and Illinois this afternoon and Saturday night with some light snow.

Much Colder

The storm that’ll bring the snow is tracking more to the southeast and this means the Quad Cities will see nothing more than light snow that might be enough to dust the ground.

Off to the east and southeast from around Princeton to Galesburg, Illinois, the snow will accumulate a little more — around 1″ or so.

However, if you have travel plans to Chicago today, the storm is primed to bring them 4-6″ of snow — notice the darker shade of blue on this forecast map at 6 p.m. Saturday.

The bigger story for us and the Midwest is the Arctic blast — very cold temperatures and frigid wind chills.

Winds will be picking up Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as temperatures fall to an overnight low in the single digits.  When you add in the winds, it’ll feel more like -10° to -15°.

Sunday’s highs will only be in the 10° to 15° range, but wind chills will make it feel even colder.

Another little system will bring some light snow Monday night and early Tuesday.  As of now, nothing more than an inch or two.

I don’t expect to post any more weather updates on this storm today.  I just wanted to put it to bed with one last update — mainly because of the cold and winds!

Enjoy your weekend.

Anthony

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More on Saturday’s Snow

UPDATED POST:  Friday, January 8, 2016, 4:23 p.m.

Snow lovers, you’re not going to be too happy.  Those not wanting much in the way of snow can start dancing around with joy.

After looking at the latest American models with the incoming storm system, it looks like we’re still going to see snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in the transition to colder air, but not much.

My colleague, Andy McCray, and I agree on lowering the snow amounts even more from this morning.

So, here’s the updated snow forecast.

New Snow Map

If anything shifts in the thinking overnight, I’ll update you Saturday morning.

Have a great weekend.

Anthony

 

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, January 8, 2016, 5:05 a.m.

Light rain, fog, and mild temperatures Friday will give way to colder air and snow Saturday.

Much colder weather arrives Saturday night into early next week with a few days with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits.

After a transition from rain early Friday night to a rain and snow mix to light snow late Friday night from the first storm system passing by, our attention will then be directed to another low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains.

It’s still trending far enough southeast of our area that we’ll only see a glancing blow from the snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Snow Saturday 1-9

In the Quad Cities, we’ll see about an inch of snow, maybe two inches.

To the east of the metro area around Princeton and Galesburg, Illinois, amounts will be closer to 2-4″.

More snow, around 5″, is possible around Chicago.

Winds will be a problem later Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday, which will cause blowing snow and visibility issues.

Also, much colder temperatures arrive by Sunday morning.  When you wake up, it’ll be around 10° and wind chills will be below zero.

Highs Sunday will only be in the low-to-mid-teens with wind chills near zero.

While we’ve definitely seen bigger snows, this is still a snow event to take seriously because there will be accumulations, wind, and much colder temperatures.

Anthony

Heavy Snow Arrives Saturday Night & Sunday

Happy Saturday!

I hope you’re stocked up on whatever you might need to wait out this weekend’s snowstorm.  If not, you still have until early Saturday afternoon.

This is going to short and sweet if you like snow.

Heavy snow is on the way Saturday evening through Sunday evening and some hometowns may have a foot of new snow on the ground by the time it ends late Sunday night or early Monday morning.

A “Winter Storm Warning” has been issued for all of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois from Saturday evening through early Sunday night for heavy snow this weekend and gusty winds, considerable blowing and drifting snow, and falling temperatures Sunday.

A rain and snow mix will begin early Saturday afternoon across our southern hometowns and it will move northward and quickly change over to snow.

Moderate to heavy snow is likely for about a 12-hour period Saturday night into early Sunday.

This is the where the GFS has the storm system at 6 a.m. Sunday.  The darker shades of green show where the moderate to heavy snow will be falling.

Now, let’s talk snow amounts.

The storm has made another shift to the north in the overnight hours, so that means that the heaviest snow will also shift northward out of central Illinois, which was the thinking Friday night.

For simplicity’s sake, 6-12″ of snow are possible with this storm from Saturday evening through late Sunday night or early Monday morning!

In the Quad Cities, I’m expecting around 10″ of snow.

Right along Interstate 80 and to the north, that’s where the heaviest snow will fall.  Amounts of 8-12″ are likely.

If you live south of I-80, you’re still going to be heavy snow.  Amounts of 6-10″ will fall there.

Remember that with any snow event, there could be isolated higher totals in any of these ranges.

LAST TIME WE SAW THIS MUCH

If we pick up more than 8.3″ of snow in the Quad Cities from this storm, it’ll be the biggest storm since that much fell back on February 26 and 27, 2013.

And, it was four years ago today (on the calendar) that a three-day snowstorm started in the Quad Cities that would bring 18.4″ of snow to the area, tying a 1979 snowstorm for the biggest snow event in Quad Cities history.

Groundhog Blizzard of 2011

In that 2011 storm, 14.8″ of that 18.4″ total fell on February 1st alone.

BOTTOM LINE…

This is a dangerous situation unfolding with heavy snow, strong winds Sunday approaching 40 miles-per-hour, and considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Additionally, by Monday morning, temperatures will be near zero and wind chills will be much colder.  Monday’s highs will only be in the teens.

Since all of the pieces of the puzzle are in place, this is my only post today — unless something drastic and unforeseen happens.

Be safe and have a great weekend!

Anthony

P.S.  I’d like to thank my friends at the National Weather Service offices for the “Winter Storm Warning” base maps. 🙂

Snow, Wind, & Turning Colder Sunday

What a beautiful Saturday that felt like early spring with a high of 48° in the Quad Cities and some low-50s across eastern Iowa!

Unfortunately, it won’t last.  Sunday will see a return to what winter typically feels like with snow, blustery winds, and temperatures falling into the 20s.

The snow will begin late Saturday night as a rain and snow mix.  By around daybreak Sunday, the rain will change over to all snow and it’ll snow at a nice pace for about four to six hours.  By afternoon, the snow will start to diminish.

Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1-3″ range.  Far southern hometowns will see an inch or less of accumulation because it could take longer for the changeover from a rain and snow mix to all snow, plus the ground is still pretty warm after the recent mild temperatures.

Winds will be rather breezy Sunday out of the northeast at about 20-30 miles-per-hour and temperatures will fall through the 20s.

After a cold start to the day Monday, we’ll see more sunshine early next week with temperatures returning to the upper-30s and mid-40s.  It’ll remain mild for all of next week, considering the average high this time of the year is 31°.

If you like this mild weather, enjoy it.  By next weekend, another snow system is looking likely along with some very cold air.

Anthony

T-Minus 24 Hours To Winter Storm

UPDATE:  Wednesday, February 20, 2013, 4:07 p.m.

Good Wednesday afternoon and evening, my friends.  Just a couple of small updates with tomorrow’s forecast based on the latest information coming in.

As expected, that “Winter Storm Watch” for much of Iowa and some of Illinois has been fine tuned.  Where the heaviest snow will fall across Iowa, it’s now a “Winter Storm Warning” (pink color) and for the Illinois counties (and some Iowa counties along the Mississippi), it’s now a “Winter Weather Advisory” (purple shading).

Also, the timing of the storm has slowed down again!  This means that snow before noon Thursday is unlikely other than a few flurries in the far south.  Snow will begin down across northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and west-central Illinois by late afternoon, and by evening in the Quad Cities.  Once the snow intensifies after dark, it’s really going to come down for about six hours.

This is the latest GFS forecast map for 6 p.m. Thursday.

The next three maps are for 9 p.m. Thursday, midnight, and 3 a.m. Friday.  The darkest greens and the blue is the moderate to heavy snow.

Okay, everyone, be safe and don’t freak out if these numbers are different from someone else’s. 🙂

Here’s what I wrote on Facebook today when that was addressed:  “A popular question when snowstorms approach: “Why can’t forecasters agree on totals?” Peeps’ soapbox answer: “Each station (and the NWS) has different forecasters and they each look at data and interpret it differently. Some will be right and some will be wrong. People should know who they trust and go with that forecaster’s amounts. It’s just like a television set — most people have them, but they don’t always turn them to the same channels and watch the same shows. Otherwise, there would be no need to have more than one channel to watch. The bottom line, regardless of who you believe, is that it’s going to snow tomorrow and it’s going to be a mess.” 🙂

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Wednesday, February 20, 2013, 8:49 a.m.

Hey there, did you hear that it’s going to snow Thursday afternoon into Friday?  I’m sure you’ve heard anything from a dusting to “eye-popping” totals!  And, I guess if you leave the range that open, the forecast is correct.

If you have errands to get done, today is a perfect day for that with sunny skies and cold temperatures.  Even with highs today expected to be in the 20-25° range, it’ll feel better than yesterday because of the lighter winds.

A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect Thursday afternoon into Friday morning for the counties shaded in blue on this map.  And, if you have travel plans to the west or southwest today or tomorrow, you can see that there’s quite a bit of pink (Winter Storm Warning) where the heaviest of snow will be falling with the next storm.

Thursday starts off innocent enough with just a few flurries or light snow developing southwest of the Quad Cities.  Snow will be gaining intensity by Thursday afternoon as it moves out of Missouri across Iowa and Illinois.

These forecast maps from the GFS model show the snow as it moves across the Midwest beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday.  The heaviest snow, maybe an inch or two per hour in some locations, is represented by darker greens.

These next maps move us ahead in three-hour intervals to 9 p.m. Thursday, midnight, and then 3 a.m. Friday.

By daybreak Friday, the heaviest of the snow will have already accumulated across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys as the storm pushes into the Great Lakes.

Here are the snow totals that I expect from this storm.

The heaviest snow (6″+) will fall across Iowa. Along the Mississippi River, 3-6″ of snow is likely.

Jo Daviess County, Illinois, is tough because they are not under the “Winter Storm Watch”, but I still expect 3-6″ of snow in  the western part of the county and lesser amounts as you head east toward Stephenson County.

That’s a ballpark forecast.  That’s not to say that there won’t be isolated higher totals.  Yes, it’s possible that some locations in the 3-6″ range may see 7″ or that Freeport may see 4″ of snow rather than 1-3″.  That comes with the winter weather forecasting.

A few more things to consider as we head into this next winter storm:

  • Along with the snow, we’ll have winds of 15-30 miles-per-hour Thursday afternoon into Friday morning causing blowing snow and near white out conditions when the heaviest snow falls.
  • We’re still 24 hours away from the heaviest of the snow (as of this writing), so these totals could be altered again.
  • The “Winter Storm Watch” (blue shading) will likely be upgraded to a “Winter Storm Warning” for some areas, a “Winter Weather Advisory” or a “Snow Advisory” for others later today or early Thursday.

Have a great day and don’t buy all the milk.  But, I don’t need bread or toilet paper.   🙂

Anthony