Posts Tagged ‘Winter Storm Watch’

Spring Forward Into Snow!

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, March 11, 2017, 4:51 p.m.

Here’s a quick update for Sunday and Monday’s snow event.

wsw.jpg

A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect Sunday evening through Monday evening for the counties shaded in blue.  This includes the Quad Cities.  It’s basically for counties along and north of Interstate 80.

A “Winter Storm Watch” means that conditions are favorable and confidence is building for significant snow accumulation.  This is the time to prepare.

It’s usually the case that this “Watch” will become a “Winter Storm Warning”, a “Winter Weather Advisory”, or a “Snow Advisory” before the snow starts to fall tomorrow.

The latest data Saturday evening is coming in snowier, so I’ve upped the snow totals for some hometowns, especially across the north.

PM Sat Snow Totals.jpg

I’ll have another update Sunday morning.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, March 11, 2017, 5:30 a.m.

“Mother Nature” definitely makes life interesting.

After the second warmest February on record in the Quad Cities with six straight days of record highs of 69°-74° and two tornado outbreaks in Iowa and Illinois in the past two weeks, “Snow Miser” blasts back into area later Sunday into Monday.

Snow Miser

A clipper system will drop through the Midwest Sunday afternoon and Monday bringing moderate snow to the area.

It’s likely the Quad Cities will see more snow with this system than what accumulated in January and February combined!  (We only picked up 2.7″ of snow in Moline, Illinois, and 2.6″ in Davenport, Iowa, so far, in 2017!)

Parts of Iowa are already under a “Winter Storm Watch” for Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. I expect watches and advisories to cover eastern Iowa and northern Illinois before the snow event begins.

This forecast is based on Saturday morning data and I’ll continue to update this throughout the weekend, as needed.

Snow will break out across eastern Iowa later Sunday afternoon.  That snow will likely reach the Quad Cities by midnight.

This is the forecast map for 6 a.m. Monday.  Notice the tightly packed lines around the low-pressure system.  That means it’ll be windy, so we’ll have to deal with blowing snow, too.

Monday 6am

Snow becomes lighter later Monday as it spreads south and east across Illinois.

The snow event ends Monday night even though a few stray flurries are still possible Tuesday morning.

Here are the snowfall amounts I’m forecasting.  Keep in mind that these numbers could shift north or south this weekend as newer information comes in.  I’ll adjust my forecast accordingly.

Snow Forecast Sunday & Monday.jpg

So, just find your hometown and that’s how much snow you’ll have to shovel.  The kids may finally get to build a “snowperson” and go sledding after a boring winter without much snow!

The good news is that the first half of the weekend will be quiet to give you a chance to get your errands done!

I hope the stores stocked up for the run on milk, eggs, bread, and toilet paper!  (I guess “Bumble” can’t be trusted with fragile eggs!)

Snow's a comin'

Finally, while I don’t believe in the fairy tale of “Punxsutawney Phil”, the Pennsylvania groundhog that predicted six more weeks of winter, some people do (I’m looking at you, James!)

Jimmie the Groundhog Wisconsin

When the snow starts flying later Sunday, it’ll have been 5 weeks and 3 days since “Phil” saw his shadow and made his snowy forecast — just inside the “six more weeks of winter” window! 🙂

Anthony

Ice & Snow Threat Monday

It’s been more than a month since significant winter weather threatened Iowa and Illinois.

That storm right almost a week before Thanksgiving brought 9.9″ officially to the Quad Cities.

Snow Saturday Morning

As I’ve been telling you about for a few days, our next storm system will bring rain, snow, ice, and wind to eastern Iowa and northern Illinois late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

wsw.jpg

A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect Monday morning and runs through late Monday night.

That means that conditions are favorable that significant winter weather will be happening in that time period.

With the increased chance of icing, I think parts of our area will be under a “Freezing Rain Advisory” or an “Ice Storm Warning” by later Sunday.

After a nice day Sunday with some sunshine and highs well into the 30s, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will move in late Sunday night as the storm moves out of Texas toward the Great Lakes.

Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain will fall Monday into Monday evening before the wintry mix changes to all snow.

On Monday, southern hometowns may see all rain and there may be several hours when the wintry mix will change to rain as far north as the Quad Cities.

qpf

This graphic is the one I posted earlier.  It hasn’t changed too much in the updates.  There will be a lot of moisture for this storm to work with and that is bad news.

Northern hometowns will see some icing and snow that could accumulate over 4″.

In the Quad Cities, we could see more than one-quarter of an inch of ice Sunday night into Monday night before a few inches of snow sticks.

Southern hometowns could see more than one-half of an inch of rain with some light icing and light snow by the time it ends.

If the threat of ice and snow wasn’t enough, winds will be rather blustery with gusts of over 40 miles-per-hour.  Any icing with those winds could easily bring down tree limbs and power lines causing power outages.

Since we see mostly snowstorms in our area, a reference point on one-quarter of an inch is the thickness of a compact disc case.  That’s how much ice could be accumulating.

Now, with all that being said, this forecast is not set in stone.  The storm could shift on its movement from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

Any shift to the east could bring in colder air, more snow, and less ice or a shift more to the west will produce warmer air and more rain, which would affect the amount of snow and icing we see.

Definitely keep up on the updates Sunday.  I’ll have another one Sunday morning.

Anthony

Another Winter Storm On The Way!

MONDAY UPDATE:  March 4, 2013, 10:27 a.m.

Snowfall Forecast

SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE:  March 3, 2013, 5:28 p.m.

Hello friends!  The timing of the “Winter Storm Watch” has changed and there is now a “Winter Weather Advisory” north of the Quad Cities late Sunday night through Monday evening.  However, the bottom line is that snow will be moving in overnight tonight to the north and west and throughout Monday.

Some accumulation is expected area wide through Monday evening with the heaviest up around Dubuque and Maquoketa, Iowa, and Galena, Illinois.  But, the heaviest snow for the rest of us will come Monday night and Tuesday.

I’m still looking for the possibility of 6″+ of snow in the Quad Cities, northward across Illinois, and northwestward into Iowa with lesser amounts southeast of the Quad Cities.

For specific numbers (snotals — snow totals) for this two-day storm, join me tomorrow morning from 5-7 a.m. on CBS4!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anthony

UPDATED:  Sunday, March 3, 2013, 7:49 a.m.

Happy Sunday everyone!  After a chilly morning with lows in the single digits and the teens across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys, we’ll see plenty of sunshine today with increasing afternoon high clouds and highs around 30-35°.

Light snow will develop across Iowa tonight and should be moving into the Quad Cities by daybreak Monday.  I expect light snow Monday and Monday night with moderate snow possible Tuesday.

As of Sunday morning, here are the counties under a “Winter Storm Watch” for Monday and Tuesday.

Let me point out something that has people who live in Knox and Stark counties confused.  They look at this and say “wish we were getting snow in Galesburg” or “no snow in Knox County?”

That isn’t the case.  You will be seeing snow from this system.  The problem lies with the fact that those two counties are under the Lincoln National Weather Service office and not the Quad Cities.  So, it’s up to that NWS office to issue a “Winter Storm Watch” and they haven’t.

By the way, here’s an updated map from NOAA on the chances of seeing up to eight inches of snow Monday morning through Wednesday morning.

If you now scroll down to the bottom of this blog, you can see the forecast from last night and how much or how little it has changed.

As it looks now (and yesterday) and there’s no reason to change my forecast, “a good starting point is a widespread 6″ or more of new snow Sunday night through Tuesday!”

I’ll continue to watch this and give you update this evening before I get a few hours of sleep before my big weather debut tomorrow morning!

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, March 2, 2013, 4:00 p.m.

Beautiful sunshine on this Saturday and the snow is beginning to melt.  However, that’s deceiving because the highs near 30° are about 12 degrees below average for early March!

Sunny Melting Snow

Another mostly sunny day is expected Sunday with highs in the mid-30s.

That’s when the next storm begins to affect the area with increasing clouds Sunday night with some light snow developing across Iowa.

Snow is expected to become widespread early Monday and last into Tuesday.  Since this could be another long-lasting snow event, accumulations could easily start adding up!  Remember that the snow that started last Tuesday and lasted through Friday dropped, officially, 9.4″ in the Quad Cities in at the airport in Moline, Illinois.

A “Winter Storm Watch” has already been issued for much of the eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.  That’s indicated by the blue coloring on this map.

If you have travel plans across the Midwest, you can see by this map that we are not the only ones under the “Winter Storm Watch”.  That pink over North Dakota is a “Winter Storm Warning”.

I expect light snow to start late Sunday night and for it to snow all day Monday and Monday night.

Here is NOAA’s GFS forecast map for noon Monday.  Notice that one shade of darker green over eastern Iowa.  That’s the snow I’m expecting through Monday night.  However, look off toward the Dakotas.  That’s more snow in the darker greens.

I think the heaviest of the snow will fall Tuesday based on what I’m seeing right now.  Here’s the NAM forecast for 6 a.m. Tuesday.  Those darker greens indicate moderate to heavy snows.

And, here is the 6 a.m. GFS model showing pretty much the same thing with heavier snow Tuesday.

While the beginning of the snow is still more than a day away, it’s too early to put final numbers on this storm.  However, a good starting point is a widespread 6″ or more of new snow Sunday night through Tuesday!

Here’s a forecast map showing the likelihood of up to 8″ of snow from NOAA.  This is not my forecast, just another product to look at it.  The darker blues indicate where the heaviest snows will likely fall and that’s very closer to the Quad Cities.

I’ll watch this upcoming snow event for the rest of the weekend and give you an update Sunday.

And, what’s even more exciting, I get to bring this forecast to you on television Monday morning bright and early at 5 a.m. when I start as the morning meteorologist on “CBS4 This Morning”.

Anthony

P.S.  You want some good news if you don’t like snow?  Warmer temperatures are expected next weekend with 30s and 40s!

T-Minus 24 Hours To Winter Storm

UPDATE:  Wednesday, February 20, 2013, 4:07 p.m.

Good Wednesday afternoon and evening, my friends.  Just a couple of small updates with tomorrow’s forecast based on the latest information coming in.

As expected, that “Winter Storm Watch” for much of Iowa and some of Illinois has been fine tuned.  Where the heaviest snow will fall across Iowa, it’s now a “Winter Storm Warning” (pink color) and for the Illinois counties (and some Iowa counties along the Mississippi), it’s now a “Winter Weather Advisory” (purple shading).

Also, the timing of the storm has slowed down again!  This means that snow before noon Thursday is unlikely other than a few flurries in the far south.  Snow will begin down across northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and west-central Illinois by late afternoon, and by evening in the Quad Cities.  Once the snow intensifies after dark, it’s really going to come down for about six hours.

This is the latest GFS forecast map for 6 p.m. Thursday.

The next three maps are for 9 p.m. Thursday, midnight, and 3 a.m. Friday.  The darkest greens and the blue is the moderate to heavy snow.

Okay, everyone, be safe and don’t freak out if these numbers are different from someone else’s. 🙂

Here’s what I wrote on Facebook today when that was addressed:  “A popular question when snowstorms approach: “Why can’t forecasters agree on totals?” Peeps’ soapbox answer: “Each station (and the NWS) has different forecasters and they each look at data and interpret it differently. Some will be right and some will be wrong. People should know who they trust and go with that forecaster’s amounts. It’s just like a television set — most people have them, but they don’t always turn them to the same channels and watch the same shows. Otherwise, there would be no need to have more than one channel to watch. The bottom line, regardless of who you believe, is that it’s going to snow tomorrow and it’s going to be a mess.” 🙂

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Wednesday, February 20, 2013, 8:49 a.m.

Hey there, did you hear that it’s going to snow Thursday afternoon into Friday?  I’m sure you’ve heard anything from a dusting to “eye-popping” totals!  And, I guess if you leave the range that open, the forecast is correct.

If you have errands to get done, today is a perfect day for that with sunny skies and cold temperatures.  Even with highs today expected to be in the 20-25° range, it’ll feel better than yesterday because of the lighter winds.

A “Winter Storm Watch” goes into effect Thursday afternoon into Friday morning for the counties shaded in blue on this map.  And, if you have travel plans to the west or southwest today or tomorrow, you can see that there’s quite a bit of pink (Winter Storm Warning) where the heaviest of snow will be falling with the next storm.

Thursday starts off innocent enough with just a few flurries or light snow developing southwest of the Quad Cities.  Snow will be gaining intensity by Thursday afternoon as it moves out of Missouri across Iowa and Illinois.

These forecast maps from the GFS model show the snow as it moves across the Midwest beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday.  The heaviest snow, maybe an inch or two per hour in some locations, is represented by darker greens.

These next maps move us ahead in three-hour intervals to 9 p.m. Thursday, midnight, and then 3 a.m. Friday.

By daybreak Friday, the heaviest of the snow will have already accumulated across the Mississippi and Illinois Valleys as the storm pushes into the Great Lakes.

Here are the snow totals that I expect from this storm.

The heaviest snow (6″+) will fall across Iowa. Along the Mississippi River, 3-6″ of snow is likely.

Jo Daviess County, Illinois, is tough because they are not under the “Winter Storm Watch”, but I still expect 3-6″ of snow in  the western part of the county and lesser amounts as you head east toward Stephenson County.

That’s a ballpark forecast.  That’s not to say that there won’t be isolated higher totals.  Yes, it’s possible that some locations in the 3-6″ range may see 7″ or that Freeport may see 4″ of snow rather than 1-3″.  That comes with the winter weather forecasting.

A few more things to consider as we head into this next winter storm:

  • Along with the snow, we’ll have winds of 15-30 miles-per-hour Thursday afternoon into Friday morning causing blowing snow and near white out conditions when the heaviest snow falls.
  • We’re still 24 hours away from the heaviest of the snow (as of this writing), so these totals could be altered again.
  • The “Winter Storm Watch” (blue shading) will likely be upgraded to a “Winter Storm Warning” for some areas, a “Winter Weather Advisory” or a “Snow Advisory” for others later today or early Thursday.

Have a great day and don’t buy all the milk.  But, I don’t need bread or toilet paper.   🙂

Anthony