Archive for January, 2016

Heavy Snow Missing the Quad Cities

ORIGINAL POST: Sunday, January 31, 2016, 2:22 p.m.

The snowstorm that’ll bring heavy snow and blizzard-like conditions to much of western and central Iowa is now ashore out west.  It’ll be moving to the southern Plains tomorrow and then to the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning.

For most of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and the Quad Cities, it looks like we’ll be on the warmer side for much of the storm.

We may see some light snow or a wintry mix late Monday night that’ll change to rain for much of Tuesday.  By late Tuesday evening, we’ll be changing back over to light snow and we could get some minor accumulation.

 

You see that the low pressure system is pretty much right over the Quad Cities area and this is why we’ll see mostly rain (one-half to three-quarters of an inch), that is represented by the light and dark green.

You see a lot of dark blue across much of Iowa.  That’s the heavy snow.  6″+ of wind-blown snow is not out of the question.

As of this afternoon, much of Iowa, including Waterloo, is under a “Blizzard Watch” for late Monday evening through late Tuesday night.  This will likely be upgraded to a “Blizzard Warning” or a “Winter Storm Warning”.

Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Jackson County, Iowa, along with Jo Daviess County, Illinois, are under a “Winter Storm Watch” from late Monday night through late Tuesday night.

 

So, what are the chances of seeing 6″ of snow or greater? The brown over the Quad Cities show the chances at zero to 5%.

I’ll have the latest and all you need to know bright and early Monday morning on “Local 4 News this Morning” from 5-7 a.m.

Anthony

Still Looking Snowy Tuesday, But…

UPDATED POST:  Saturday, January 30, 2016, 4:18 p.m.

Here’s a quick update.  I’ve really enjoyed highs today near 50° in the Quad Cities.

The big storm that we’ve been watching since it was near Japan earlier this week is now just off the Pacific coast and should move over land tomorrow.  When that happens, the amount of data we’ll have will increase drastically and so will the confidence in the winter storm forecast for Monday night and Tuesday.

The latest trend for the Quad Cities, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois is a warmer forecast.  This would give us a wintry mix late Monday night, some rain Tuesday, and a transition to snow Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.

This would also cut back on how much snow we’ll see.  At this time, the heaviest snow, 6″+, will fall across western and central Iowa.

Now, with that being said, that’s how it looks this evening.  This is all subject to change tomorrow once the storm comes ashore.

I’ll have another update Sunday and it’ll likely have more concrete solutions for what we’ll see Tuesday.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Saturday, January 30, 2016, 6:48 a.m.

We’re now just three days away from a big snowstorm that’ll drop some heavy snow across the Midwest.  Parts of eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois could be getting in on some of that, too!

Before that, weekend temperatures will warm well into the 40s to around 50° Saturday and into the 40s Sunday with light rain.

Now, let’s talk snow.

Snow Saturday Morning

The storm system that’ll bring us the snow is still out in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to come ashore Sunday along the west coast.  At that time, it’ll track to the southern Plains and then make its way to the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening.

Sounds simple enough?  Yes.  But, from a weather forecasting standpoint, no.  The problem lies in what path does it take across Missouri and Illinois.

Some models have the storm farther north this morning and some have it farther south!

If the low pressure system tracks across the Quad Cities, it’ll keep the metro area and much of Illinois in the warmer air longer and cut back on snow.

If the storm tracks toward Chicago out of Missouri, we could be seeing heavier snow in eastern Iowa and a quicker transition from rain or a wintry mix to snow.

Here’s NOAA’s GFS forecast map for noon Tuesday.

Noon Tuesday GFS

So, the big question regarding heavy snow is which path out of Missouri will the low take on the way to the Great Lakes.

I’m very comfortable saying that western and central Iowa will see heavy snow, 6″ or more.

Remember the map I showed you Friday.  At this point in the game with the uncertainty, it’s still valid.

Snow Tuesday

For now, plan on much of Iowa getting a lot of snow.  As you head toward eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois, we’re still in a holding pattern — will we see several inches or more or less?

There is a lot of moisture associated with this storm.

Moisture Tuesday

For simplicity sake, it’s all snow and we use the 10:1 rule, some places could see between 6-12″ of snow.

If the Quad Cities ends up getting on the cold side, we’ll get a big snow.  But, if we’re on the warm side, a moderate rain event with a little snow on the backside is more likely.

If the moderate to heavy snow potential wasn’t enough, there’s going to be a lot of wind with this storm causing considerable blowing and drifting snow, where the heaviest snow falls.

I’ll have another update later in the day Saturday.

Anthony

Snowstorm Looking More Likely

UPDATED POST:  Friday, January 29, 2016, 4:31 p.m.

Today marks the third straight day with high temperatures in the Quad Cities 40-degrees or better.  Tomorrow and Sunday will be even warmer in the mid-to-upper-40s.

I’m still expecting some light rain Sunday.

With better guidance coming in and the best data still to come later this weekend once our storm comes ashore out west, it’s looking snowier here Tuesday and Tuesday night.

There will be a lot of moisture for this storm to work with and the map that I shared with you this morning looks very good at this time.  Here it is again.

Snow Tuesday

While I’ll likely commit to some accumulation totals this weekend, where you see the darker purple, that could definitely be a snowblower event.

Along the Mississippi River and in the Quad Cities in the lighter purple, get those shovels ready.

I’ll get up bright and early Saturday and give you another update.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  Friday, January 29, 2016, 6:03 a.m.

If you’ve been missing real Midwestern winter weather — a blanket of snow and colder temperatures — you only have to wait a few more days for winter to return in full fashion.

March Snow

Before that, weekend highs will warm to about 45°-50° with some light rain Sunday.

For the Iowa Caucus Monday, snow could be moving into southern Iowa by evening and that’ll spread into Illinois overnight Monday.  By early Tuesday morning, there could be some minor snow accumulating making the morning commute a little slippery.

Now, let’s talk about the big storm coming in Tuesday that I’ve been warning you about for almost a week.

The storm is still out in the Pacific, so there’s plenty of time to fine tune the forecast before it arrives.  It’ll come ashore Sunday and I’ll have a much better grasp on not just the track of the storm, but how much snow will accumulate.

Again, keep up on the latest forecast this weekend and early next week.  At that time, I’ll be much more specific with the forecast.

Snow Tuesday

As it looks now, the wintry mix early Tuesday morning will change over to a wintry mix along the Mississippi River and some rain to the east of the Quad Cities.  To the west, it’ll stay snow.

By afternoon, colder air comes in and all of us will be seeing snow into Tuesday night.

We could easily pick up several inches of snow along the Mississippi River, including the Quad Cities.   Lesser amounts are expected to the east.

The heaviest of snow, at this point, will be falling across western and central Iowa.  This also includes some of our western hometowns.

Again, I want to stress, these lines will be shifting as better data comes in and we get closer to Tuesday.

This is just a first glance and for planning purposes.

Have a great weekend.

Anthony

 

Random Friday Thoughts — January 29, 2015

I’m starting off with a quick thank you for taking the time to check out my blogs when I share new ones and for your comments.

I miss writing every day.  Since my new blogs are not regular, fewer people check them out.  But, I appreciate each and every one of you that reads them.

And, as always, feel free to share your thoughts — if you agree with me or disagree.  Just tell me why and do it diplomatically.

Here goes…

BIZARRE “KING OF POP” CASTING

A new British made-for-television movie, “Elizabeth, Michael, & Marlon”, focusing on a road trip that Michael Jackson allegedly took with Elizabeth Taylor and Marlon Brando after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 is getting a lot of buzz.  I say “allegedly” because this incredibly hard to believe story was disputed by “Vanity Fair” magazine in 2011.

“The Guardian”, a British daily newspaper, is reporting that Joseph Fiennes, who won praise and several awards for 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love”, will be playing Michael Jackson!

Joseph-Fiennes-American-Horror-Story

Wouldn’t the Oscars just love this!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I remember him very, very well as the naughty Monsignor Timothy Howard on “American Horror Story: Asylum” in 2012-2013.

Stockard Channing is reportedly playing Liz Taylor.

WHAT WOULD MICHAEL THINK ABOUT THIS?

In a 23-year-old interview with Oprah Winfrey, she asked the legendary singer about rumors of him wanting a white kid play him in a Pepsi commercial.

http://www.michael-jackson-photos.com/

Michael replied, “That’s the most ridiculous, horrifying story I’ve ever heard. It’s crazy. Why would I want a white child to play me? I’m a black American. I am proud to be a black American. I am proud of my race. I am proud of who I am.”

I guess he wouldn’t approve of Fiennes!

THIS “SNL” SCENE FITS PERFECTLY — #OSCARSSOWHITE

For two years in a row, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (the Academy Awards) failed to nominate an actor of color in the acting awards — that’s 20 white people two years running.

I’m not a fan of “Saturday Night Live”, but they can get it right and when they do, it’s too funny.

IOWA CAUCUS

Like music and movie charts and stats, I love polls and numbers when it comes to big elections and this year’s presidential election will be a big one.

I’m excited about Monday’s Iowa Caucus, the first vote in the nation for the next president of the United States, for two reasons:  (1) to see who wins and if the polls were correct and (2) so we’ll hear and see less of the so-called candidates that never stood a snowball’s chance in hell of winning!

Earlier in the week, I posted a really interesting blog about why the race for president is much bigger than Iowa and New Hampshire and how diversity across the U.S. will have a bigger impact on the nominations.  The day after I shared it, “Real Clear Politics” had a similar story.

Lately when you say politics, people zone out.  So, if you didn’t read it, here it is again.  At least, glance at it.  (The link will open in a new window, so you won’t lose your place in today’s blog.)

https://anthonypeoples.wordpress.com/2016/01/25/diversity-in-america-the-2016-presidential-election/

Now that you’ve read it, do you agree or disagree?

DONALD TRUMP CAN GET AWAY WITH MURDER?

Maybe he could get a show on ABC since NBC got rid of him!

And, technically, he didn’t say he could kill someone.

Last Saturday, in Sioux City, Iowa, the not-fit-for-president blowhard told an audience, “The polls say I have the most loyal people. Did you ever see that, that I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters? Okay, it’s like incredible.”

This isn’t Russia and he’s not Putin, it’s not Germany and he’s not Hitler.  Nevermind, I can’t prove who he is and who he isn’t!

I just know that even my Republican friends across the aisle can’t think that he’d be good for America no matter how much they hate President Obama and dislike the Democratic candidates and the Republicans running against Trump.

THEY SAID WHAT???

Remember this former Monday feature?

POP STAR KELLY CLARKSON (on Trump):  “I am legitimately frightened for our nation.”

kelly-clarkson-wrapped-in-red-album-cover

POP MUSIC ICON CHER (tweeting about Trump backing out of this week’s Fox debate):

“Trump NOT Doing FOX Debate Cause Of MEGAN KELLY😂Some1 Get Him TOE SHOES,fkng PRIMA DONNA. HOW CAN HE FACE ISIS,HE CANT FACE A CHICK ON TV.🐈

Cher Dressed to Kill Tour

REPUBLICAN MAINE GOVERNOR PAUL LePAGE (on drug traffickers):  “What I think we ought to do is bring the guillotine back. We could have public executions.”

Say what????

DANCE MIX TO GET YOU GOING THIS FRIDAY

Sometimes you just have to smile and make the best of the trainwreck that is Sarah Palin and Donald Trump.

Her endorsement of the Republican front runner is rather entertaining!  Okay, this version is fun.

“CANCELLED” OR “CANCELED”

Thousands of flights were “cancelled” last weekend with the epic blizzard across the mid-Atlantic and the northeastern United States.  Even when school are delayed or “canceled” locally, you see the spelling both ways.

Which do you prefer, since both are correct?  I’m old school and I like “CANCELLED”.

PANDA IN SNOW — LOVE IT!

While I know the historic snowstorm wreaked havoc for millions and, sadly, killed people, you have to find the beautiful of it.

This video from the Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington D.C. made my weekend last weekend.

Tian Tian (tee-YEN tee-YEN), the male giant panda, loved playing in the snow.  The zoo says “giant pandas have thick woolly coats that keep them warm in the snowy mountains of China”.

“FORCE MAJEURE”

Since we’re talking snow, I finally got to see a movie that I’ve been wanting to see for well over a year now.

“Force Majeure”, a 2014 Swedish film, that was nominated for a Golden Globe Award for Best Foreign Language Film, is funny and serious.

A family of four are vacationing for a week in the French Alps.  One day at a patio lunch, a controlled avalanche rolls down the mountain dangerously close to where they’re sitting blasting them with snow.

In the pandemonium, as vacationers run from the patio, the father, Tomas, rushes from the scene leaving his wife, Ebba, to get to two children to safety.

It’s only a false alarm and they go back to lunch with snow on the patio.  But, things have changed.

Did Tomas really run and leave his family and how will he and Ebba deal with the aftermath as a family?

After seeing the movie, I wish that Johannes Bah Kuhnke, who plays Tomas, would do some American movies.

GRADE:  A-

“THE 5TH WAVE”

Last Friday night, with Ray in New Orleans, Gretel, our 14-year-old daughter, and I had a dad and daughter weekend.

It started at the movies with a large popcorn and two large Coke Zeros with a splash of cherry!

She’s read “The 5th Wave” novel and was looking forward to the movie starring one of her favorite actresses, Chloe Grace Moretz, and one of her crushes, Nick Robinson (“Jurassic World”).

It’s a young-adult end-of-the-world movie about aliens taking over the world in a catastrophic waves.

While the U.S. box office results for opening weekend were weak at $11 million, part of that may have been due to historic snowstorm on the East Coast.  Foreign box office returns are stronger and the movie has, at least, made back its $38 million budget.

If you like doomsday movies, you can look past the teenage love story (triangle) and enjoy the movie.  I did.  (And, Gretel is right.  Both Robinson and Alex Roe are very cute young men!)

GRADE:  B

I CROSSED THE AISLE TO BE FAIR, BUT HE SURE ISN’T!

If you’ve read my blogs and thoughts on a regular basis, you know that I’m a Democrat and that I support Hillary Clinton.

However, this random thought is about being open-minded and crossing the aisle and reading books by a couple of Republicans.  I started with two-time failed presidential candidate and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee

I read his 2008 “New York Times” bestseller “Do The Right Thing” and here’s a quick summation of the 216-page book to prove that I actually read it. 🙂

I enjoyed the six-page Prologue, “I Love Iowa! January 3, 2008”, which focused on the Iowa Caucus that he won keeping him in the presidential race that year longer than expected.

After that, it was all downhill!  It was filled with his anti-Democrat, anti-gay rhetoric, and his holier than thou religious life.  I’m perfectly fine that people love God and want to talk about it.  I pray to God every night and thank him for all he’s blessed me with in life.

Huckabee starts one chapter about “all men are created equal” and later in the book, on protecting human life, he states, “I do pray that one day we will be clear as to the value and worth of each and every human life”.  What baffles me is the hate he then spews in the name of his love for God.  It fully contradicts those comments.

The book is not very cohesive — it’s all over the place.  In the middle of talking about abortions and being pro-life, there’s a couple of paragraphs about how repulsive slavery was.  It was!  However, that was awkward place for it.  Couldn’t it have its own chapter?

The biggest laugh I had (and there weren’t many in the book) was at the start of chapter 6 (page 83) when he declared, “On Saturday, January 28, 2007, I made history by becoming the first person both to announce his candidacy for president of the United States on “Meet the Press” and, moments later, to be seen on the same program wearing a Hawaiian shirt and playing “Born to Be Wild” with his band.”

Technically, it may have never happened before.  But, I’m sorry Mike, that’s not history-worthy and it won’t be remembered by anyone other than you and your family!

As I stated, the Prologue was interesting and then when he talked about FairTax, he got my attention.

It’s basically a system to tax goods we buy instead of taxing our salaries and doing away with the IRS and income taxes.  Huckabee made a good point, “Do you think that drug dealers, prostitutes, pimps, gamblers, or people in this country illegally are filling out the same IRS tax forms each year and reporting the money they illegally earned?”

I can say I gave him a chance and I was hoping to see where he developed so much hate for me and my family and the rest of the LGBT community.

Move on Mike.  Your 2016 presidential run is DOA and Iowa doesn’t love you like it did in 2008.  Go home to your family and retire.

ONE-HIT WONDER — I BET YOU DON’T REMEMBER THIS

I’m going through my movies and CDs and downsizing.

I came across the self-titled debut from Hanna-McEuen (cousins Jaime Hanna and Jonathan McEuen) from the fall of 2005.

The first single from the album, “Something Like A Broken Heart” is a great song and Jaime’s voice is incredible.  Sadly, it only made a blip on country music radio peaking at #38.

I’m hoping Hanna’s good looks weren’t what prompted me to buy the CD.  Nevermind, I already said his voice is incredible.

By the way, he’s currently playing in Gary Allan’s band.

Gary is a great guy.  I had a chance to interview him in Lubbock, Texas, as we were both starting out in our respective professions, back in 1996.  He was enjoying his first hit, “Her Man”, which reached #7.

As charming and sexy as he is (and was), all he wanted to be was “her man”, not mine. 🙂

Gary has now scored 23 country hits, eleven have gone Top Ten, and four have hit #1.  His first was “Man To Man” from the 2001 “Alright Guy” album.

Gary Allan

Gary is coming to the area to Davenport, Iowa, August 3, 2016, to the Mississippi Valley Fair.

OR THIS ONE-HIT WONDER…

I also came across another self-titled, one-hit wonder, Katrina Elam of Oklahoma.

She reached #29 on the country charts with “No End in Sight”.

While that was her only Top 40 country hit as a singer, she’s written Top Ten hits for Rascal Flatts (“Easy”, #2, 2011) and Hunter Hayes (“Invisible”, #4, 2014), and songs for Carrie Underwood and the Eli Young Band.

Reba McEntire did a remake of Elam’s “I Want A Cowboy” on her 2009 “Keep on Loving You” album.

THAT’S IT FOR NOW

I hope you found something interesting here.  If something got you thinking, share your thoughts with me and have a great weekend!

Anthony

Next Week’s Snow: Many Details To Work Out

UPDATED POST: THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016, 4:35 p.m.

Here’s an evening update on the winter storm for next week.  Of course, I’ll have the latest on “Local 4 News This Morning” Friday from 5-7 a.m.

While the storm is still out in the Pacific Ocean, the models are coming together on solutions that’ll bring some heavy snow to parts of Iowa.  However, a pinpoint forecast is still premature.

Based on the evening data I’m seeing, a wintry mix arrives across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois late Monday night.  It’ll be cold enough that some of us could see light snow or ice accumulation.

However, the path of the low pressure system will be close enough to us that we’ll be on the warm side of the system during much of Tuesday.  This means rain.

Back across the northwestern half of Iowa, it would be snow Tuesday.

Colder air arriving Tuesday night and Wednesday would bring a transition to accumulating snow to the Quad Cities.

All of that analysis will likely shift and change before early next week.

So, based on the the evening information, that’s where we stand.  There’ll still plenty of time before a clearer path and confidence is high enough to throw accumulation totals out to you.

If you start hearing them Friday and Saturday, take it with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST: THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016, 7:03 a.m.

I promise I won’t get on a soap box this morning.

However, if you’re already reading this, you know that I tell it how it is when it comes to life and, especially, weather forecasting.

I’m not going to throw out premature snow forecast totals just to get you to click on my blog or share it.  And, I’ll definitely not brag about how many people are viewing my blogs even though I have access to that information.

With that being said, after we enjoy a nice warm weekend with highs in the 45°-50° range, winter returns with a vengeance early next week.

A storm that is still well out in the Pacific will come ashore and by early next week start moving northeast out of the southern Plains.

The exact track of that storm will dictate who’ll see heavy snow, who’ll see heavy rain, and who’ll get heavy rain that changes over to accumulating snow.

Snow Potential

All of that will be playing out Tuesday and Wednesday in the Midwest.

My current thinking is that we’ll be seeing mild temperatures Tuesday with rain developing.

By Tuesday evening, colder air will be spilling in and the rain will change over to accumulating snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

After that, it’ll be much colder for a couple of days.

The bottom line is that it’s way too early to predict exactly where the heaviest of snow will fall and how much that will be.

CT Snow

The details I just shared with you will likely change many times before early next week.

As a forecaster, I’m responsible and I’m not going to sensationalize the event to get more readers.

I’ll keep you updated as we head through the weekend leading into this snow event.

Anthony

Warm Weekend, But Then Snow?

UPDATED POST:  WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 4:39 p.m.

Nice sunshine this afternoon warmed our high temperature in the Quad Cities to 40°, easily surpassing the forecast high.

Warmer weather is expected through the weekend with some hometowns approaching 50° Saturday.

Then, all eyes focus on a storm coming in early next week.  Today, that storm is way out in the Pacific.

Looking at the latest afternoon NOAA GFS model, I still expect light snow to develop Monday night and then change over to rain Tuesday as the low pressure system tracks close to the Quad Cities.

A transition over to snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday will bring us accumulating snow.  How much?  It’s way too early to say and if you see a forecast with amounts, they’re just trying to get you excited.  Ignore it!

It’s still almost a week away, so there’ll be many changes to the forecast.

This is just an informational blog for planning purposes to give you a heads up.

Anthony

ORIGINAL POST:  WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 7:31 a.m.

While we may see a few snow flurries later today, a rather tranquil weather pattern is in place through the first half of the weekend.

We’ll also see a warming trend that will take us from the mid-30s today to near 40° tomorrow and the mid-to-upper-40s for the weekend in the Quad Cities!

By Sunday, some light rain moves in during the afternoon and that’ll change over to light snow Sunday night.  This will not be a big deal.

However, there is a big deal on the way to the Midwest next Tuesday and Wednesday.

6pm Tuesday GFS

This is the forecast weather map from NOAA at 6 p.m. Tuesday.  We see two areas of low pressure — one moving into Missouri and the other over Oklahoma.

That storm system will bring copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Depending on the path this storm takes across the Midwest, we could be seeing moderate to heavy rain and/or snow.

At this point in the game, parts of Iowa could be seeing heavy snow.

In the Quad Cities, we’ll definitely see snow, it’s just a matter of whether it starts out as rain Tuesday and changes to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Or, if the storm tracks more to our east and south, we’ll be on the cold side and could see more snow.

It’s way too early to pinpoint who gets the most and how much.  However, it’s not too early to get the word out that a big storm could be moving in early next week.

Anthony

Diversity in America & the 2016 Presidential Election

Politics and the 2016 presidential race is the hot topic during these cold winter months.

You can’t get away from hearing about it on television, the radio, and, especially, on social media.

Pretty much all of the attention has been focused on Iowa and New Hampshire because they are the first states to hold caucuses (Iowa, February 1) and primaries (New Hampshire, February 9).

As I write this, I want to throw out two things here to be fair — (1) I’m a Hillary Clinton supporter and I’ll be as objective as I can.

Hillary AP

And, (2) while many “candidates” are at odds with my marriage and my family, the amount of support for Donald Trump scares me.

You may have noticed that “candidates” is in quotation marks because Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Martin O’Malley have no chance of winning.  You could probably safely add Jeb Bush and Chris Christie to this list, too.

Now, the points of the blog — the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, why the faith in those two states may be overrated, the polls, and the media needing a story.

Another disclaimer here:  I work in the television news business as a meteorologist, so I have no control in what candidates or stories we cover.

Iowa NH

Iowa and New Hampshire are a thousand miles apart, but they gets plenty of national publicity in the long election campaigns because unknown national candidates can gain traction there (Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Bernie Sanders in 2016).

While Huckabee is DOA in Iowa this time around, the state is still important to Trump and Ted Cruz, who are battling it out on the Republican side and for Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side for the same reason — bragging rights.

It can definitely boost national recognition and campaign contributions.

For us in the Illinois Quad Cities, bordering Iowa gives us a chance to see candidates that may be history by the March 15th Illinois primary.  (For those unfamiliar with the Quad Cities, it’s two larger cities in Iowa and two in Illinois on the Mississippi River separated by bridges — even though other communities feel they should be part of the “Quad” Cities.)

That’s why Iowa and New Hampshire are important.  Here’s why they really aren’t vital to the scheme of things on a national level.

Iowa has a population around 3.1 million people and New Hampshire 1.3 million. Combined, that’s 4.4 million people.

322.2 million people live in the United States, so those two states amount to 1.3% of the country’s population.

However, if you look closer at the population of those two states, you’ll find that Iowa is 91% white and Hampshire is 94% white.

diversity

I even saw a story refer to Iowa as “lily white” and New Hampshire as “lily whiter”.  It is what it is, but that’s not a true representation of America.

The demographics for our country are crudely broken down as:  63% White, 17% Hispanic, 13% African American, and 5% Asian.

For those reasons, I find it hard to put a lot of faith that Iowa and New Hampshire will decide the next election when you look at population and demographics.

And, then there are the polls!  I look at them, but I don’t cry over them.  It’s all about who is conducting them and how the questions are asked (or how you think they are asked).

RCP Sunday.jpg

For example, in Iowa, Clinton and Sanders are within points of each other in most polls, yet there are others that show Clinton with a commanding lead.

It’s a given that Sanders is easily winning New Hampshire (19-point lead).  The polls show it and the media is serving it to you on a platter!

Yet, you’re not hearing about Clinton’s 22-point lead in South Carolina, the 33-point lead in North Carolina, and the 36-point Florida lead.  It would deflate the underdog Sanders’ story and the media loves a good story.

We really won’t know the outcome and the accuracy of these polls until people get out to their caucuses and primaries.  It’s very important to make your vote count.

The campaigning process for the presidential election is getting longer and longer because there’s so much money to be made and wasted.

These are my thoughts.  If you agree or disagree, let me know.  Just do it diplomatically.

Anthony